NJ weather: Nice summer weekend, big changes next week, latest on T.S. Erin

There's a lot to like about this weather forecast, heading into another summer weekend. Humidity levels will drop a little bit Friday, especially for the northern half of the state. And temperatures will be more seasonable, settling in the mid 80s. There is a chance of a popup thunderstorm. We'll see highs in the lower 80s on Saturday and then upper 80s on Sunday. The only issue will be some late-day thunderstorms around on Sunday. A cold front will bring in much cooler air next week, along with clouds and some showers. Tropical Storm (soon-to-be Hurricane) Erin will cause significant surf concerns along the Jersey Shore next week too.

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Friday NJ weather: Less sweltering

OK, let me start with the bad news.

I hate to even mention it.

Heck, I might have even shouted some obscenities when I first saw the report.

Ugh.

Here is the latest Drought Monitor.

That's right. 30 percent of New Jersey is now classified as "abnormally dry". It is not officially "drought" yet. And I know this is hard to believe, after so much rain and flooding from spring through July. But we've had a few very dry weeks in some corners of the state. And while reservoirs and agriculture are OK for now, it is very important to monitor these things heading into the vulnerable fall season. Let's just hope we get some healthy rainfall soon, so this does not become an issue again.

Now let's talk about the good news, as we do have a pretty good weather forecast ahead here. For Friday, we are under the influence of a weak cold front. This new air mass will try to knock back humidity levels and dew points. I do not think our air will truly become "comfortable" or "refreshing" — but definitely less sweaty, steamy, sweltering, and sultry than earlier this week.

Friday morning is starting near 70 degrees. We should top out around the mid 80s. That is seasonable, typical for this time of year. The Jersey Shore should benefit from a sea breeze, keeping thermometers a few degrees cooler.

Expect sunshine with passing clouds throughout the day.

There is one more wrinkle Friday, and that is the chance of a popup shower or thunderstorm. Most of NJ should remain high and dry. But a quick little soaker is possible. And model soaker all shows this developing in the same exact spot — right around the Philadelphia metro area, clipping southwestern New Jersey. That would be in the 2 p.m. to 8 p.m. window.

Friday night will be partly cloudy, with lows again near 70 degrees.

Saturday NJ weather: Nice summer day

Saturday reads like another pleasant summer day. I maintain that Saturday will be the nicest day of the week.

We will enjoy periods of sun and clouds, with moderate humidity levels and a light southeasterly breeze. High temperatures will end up in the lower to mid 80s.

The chance of a popup shower is not zero, but it is very low.

Sunday NJ weather: Very warm, watch for a storm

Sunday looks good too, although it will be the hottest day of the weekend.

Highs will push back to near 90 across inland New Jersey, amid mostly sunny skies. An increasing southwesterly breeze could keep mainland beaches pretty warm too.

One thing to watch will be a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms late-day Sunday, probably after about 4 p.m. They should be of the "hit or miss" variety, so I do not think you need to cancel your plans. Just keep an eye on the sky, and be mindful of the potential there.

Monday NJ weather: Turning cooler

A strong cold front will push through New Jersey early Monday morning. That means your air conditioner and electric bill will get a welcome break next week.

Monday's temperatures are a little tricky, depending how quickly that new cooler air mass arrives. Accordingly, my latest forecast puts highs somewhere between 75 and 85 degrees. Below normal for mid-August, but still comfortably warm.

That frontal passage should be mainly dry, although a few showers and sprinkles can not be ruled out. The best chance for raindrops on Monday looks to be along the Jersey Shore.

Clouds will linger throughout the day too, although it should mix with sunshine at times throughout the Garden State.

Extended NJ weather: Cloudy sky, angry ocean

One or two pieces of shortwave energy will provide some rain chances through the middle of the week, from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. None of that wet weather is a slam dunk. And the exact timing and intensity of such rainfall depends upon which model you tend to believe.

At the very least, Tuesday and Wednesday look mostly cloudy and rather cool. High temperatures will probably be stuck in the 70s at best, with a cool (but humid) easterly breeze.

The forecast for the second half of next week is all about Erin. Still a tropical storm as of 8 a.m. Thursday, Erin is still forecast to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season on Friday. It is expected to pass between the U.S. Mainland and Bermuda as a category 3 or 4 major hurricane next week.

So yes, the latest model guidance keeps the storm several hundred miles away from New Jersey. Unless something shifts dramatically, New Jersey will avoid the threat of rain and wind from Erin.

However, we will be under the gun for coastal impacts, including:
—Big waves, possibly up to 10 feet, causing major beach erosion
—Rough surf and dangerous rip currents
—Possibly some coastal flooding

It looks like Erin will make its closest pass to the Jersey Shore around Thursday.

Additional tropical waves may develop behind Erin too. Fernand would be the next name on the list.

As always, we will keep you posted both on-air and online with the very latest as the forecast becomes clearer.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.