NJ stays frozen and windy, 3 possible scenarios for weekend storm

The Bottom Line

Monday's winter storm was no joke in South Jersey. The biggest snow in almost three years, parts of Atlantic and Cape May counties topped 7 and even 8 inches on the ground. A winter wonderland!

Farther north, less snow but still some slippery travel impacts. (I will be posting a full recap of storm total snowfall reports shortly.)

Now that our latest clipper system is in the rearview mirror, we can look ahead to our next big weather story: Cold and wind. Temperatures through the end of the workweek are looking uncomfortably, unseasonably frigid. We might not even pop above the freezing mark in New Jersey until sometime Friday.

The other noteworthy weather story is our next potential storm system, which some models show arriving this weekend. This has to be one of the most hyped-up storms in recent memory — and it has not even formed yet.

It's way too early to nail down details on possible weekend snow. But I do feel the need to address the potential, as incredible snowfall is one of three basic scenarios on the table at this time.

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Tuesday

It's cold. As of this writing (6:30 a.m.), temperatures across New Jersey range from about 14 to 23 degrees. Factor in the wind, and wind chills are in the single digits in many places, as low as -2 degrees. Needless to say, you will be doing a lot of "bundling up" in the coming days, reaching for your warmest winter gear.

Tuesday will not just be cold, it will be windy too. Regular northwesterly gusts over 30 mph will add a big bite to the arctic air.

High temperatures are forecast to only reach the upper 20s to around 30 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Yup, I expect the entire state to stay below freezing. Factor in the wind chill, and "feels like" temperatures will be stuck in the teens at best.

Despite the frozen chill, there should be some snow melt throughout Tuesday, thanks to sunshine. Especially on dark-colored and treated (salted or brined) surfaces.

After sunset, temperatures will nosedive again, leading to another very cold January night. Low temperatures will dip into the upper teens to around 20. Plus, the arctic breeze will continue, likely pushing wind chills back into the single digits overnight.

Brrr.

Wednesday

More of the same for Wednesday.

Any clouds overhead will be from decaying lake-effect snow showers. It should be another dry day, with just some flurries possibly flying around.

Highs in the upper 20s. Wind gusts to 30 mph. Wind chill close to 20.

Thursday

Sunny and dry. Windy and cold. Quite the consistent, broken record forecast this week.

Morning lows on Thursday could be the coldest of the bunch, firmly in the teens. Afternoon highs on Thursday will only hit about 30 degrees.

Friday

Temperatures on Friday may actually push above the freezing mark for the first time since Sunday. But we are only talking about highs in the lower to mid 30s — not quite "warm".

Friday will progress from sun to clouds. But I am optimistic for lighter winds making for a decent January day. While we do have some potentially inclement weather to talk about for the weekend, Friday stays dry according to every forecast model I have seen.

The Weekend & Beyond

So here's the thing. I do not want to ignore the weekend storm threat, since so many are asking about it. (It is at the tail-end of the 5 Day Forecast now, after all.)

But I really don't have anything definitive to say just yet.

Only one forecast model — the GFS — has shown the potential for heavy precipitation over New Jersey. And it has been on-and-off, completely different every run. Your smartphone weather app draws in that raw long-range model data to make an unrealistic prediction for feet of snow.

Right now, it looks like Saturday would be the epicenter of potentially wintry weather. Maybe lingering into Saturday night and early Sunday.

Storm track is everything here. As always, we are going to play this one out nice and slowly. Let's game out three possible scenarios, and then meet back here tomorrow for an update to the probabilities, OK?

Scenario 1: Glancing Blow = Light Snow
Chance of happening... 40%

This is the currently-favored storm track of both the GFS and Euro models, and therefore I give it a slight edge over the other two I will talk about in a moment. If the primary area of low pressure to the south does not phase properly and turn up the coast, we would only see a brief period of snow on the northern edge of the storm. That could still lead to some accumulations and travel issues. But it would be far from the "monster" storm that some are hyping-up. Just how much snow New Jersey gets and when would depend upon 1.) the location, 2.) the size, and 3.) the speed of the storm as it passes to our south. A South Carolina track would have a whole different set of impacts than a Virginia track. Lots of variables, lots of question marks, lots of uncertainty.

Potential snowfall... 1 to 4 inches

Scenario 2: Full-Blown Nor'easter
Chance of happening... 30%

There is no denying the setup for a significant coastal storm is there — cold air, negative tilted trough, rapidly deepening low pressure. But will it phase properly, along a "perfect" storm track to deliver heavy snow and blizzard conditions to New Jersey? That is a very big, very loaded question. Icy mix, wind, and coastal flooding would be on the table with a classic nor'easter track too.

Potential snowfall... 6 to 24+ inches

Scenario 3: Total Miss
Chance of happening... 30%

"Absolutely nothing" is absolutely on the table here too, if the storm dives far enough south. And just to point out: I believe this outcome currently has the same probability as the big, bad, hype storm.

Potential snowfall... Zero. Temperatures approaching 40 degrees with partial sunshine throughout the weekend.

Again, stay tuned for updates. If this weekend's storm becomes a "thing" for New Jersey, I promise you will be among the first to know!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.