Please take NJ’s extreme heat and upcoming flooding threat seriously

We bravely face one more day of extreme heat and humidity, with near record breaking temperatures — back in the 90s Wednesday, with a heat index of 100 to 105. A few isolated thunderstorms may pop up around dinnertime. Thursday turns cloudier and cooler, with a chance for thunderstorms ramping up starting midday. I remain very concerned about pockets of very heavy rain causing flooding from Thursday evening through Friday morning. Friday will stay blah and cool, with showers lingering into the afternoon. The payoff for this awful week of weather will be the weekend - sunny and refreshing.

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Wednesday NJ weather: Last day of intense heat and humidity

I am truly running out of adjectives for this weekend's heat wave. (Although I do like the National Weather Service's choice of the word "obnoxious" to describe our current high humidity.)

One more day of soupy, sultry, sweltering summer weather before sweet relief arrives.

Wednesday is starting with temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Urban and coastal areas are especially stifling, with morning low temperatures closer to the normal highs for this time of year.

Look for thermometers once again reaching into the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon. Factor in the high humidity, and the heat index will reach about 100 to 105. The Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory continue for most of the state until 8 p.m. A Code Orange Air Quality Alert has been called for Wednesday once again too.

Expect lots of hazy blazing sunshine, with passing clouds Wednesday.

A few popup thunderstorms are possible around the dinnertime hours, between about 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. These look isolated and limited to North Jersey. But any storm that does form could produce gusty winds and a ton of rain.

Even though this will be the finale of this week's heat wave, Wednesday night will stay muggy. Low temperatures will only dip into the mid 70s or so, under partly cloudy skies.

Thursday NJ weather: Thunderstorms ramp up

Changes are on the way for Thursday, as we go from near 100 degrees on Wednesday to a high around 70 on Friday. But you know that kind of stark transition will not be a calm, friendly one — strong thunderstorms with torrential rain are practically a guarantee.

Thursday starts quiet, although humid. Clouds will increase steadily through Thursday morning, but no rain yet.

Highs on Thursday will be cooler no matter where you are. But there will be some variety. Most of the state will see 80s. But I expect 70s to the north. And still some 90s to the southwest.

By midday / lunchtime, the chance of thunderstorms will start ramping up, through the afternoon and evening hours. I can not give you a definitive rain start time, because there are still some vast discrepancies among model guidance. They all show New Jersey getting soaked — an inevitable side effect of our juicy atmosphere — it's just a matter of when.

While the initial shove of storms could produce some gusty winds and dangerous lightning, I am most concerned — by far — about the heavy rain and flash flooding potential. As we have seen several times this month, "super soaker thunderstorms" can have sudden and catastrophic impacts, and this situation has all the makings of producing multiple inches of rain in a relatively short period of time.

If stormy weather arrives Thursday afternoon, there is a chance for the evening commute to be impacted by downpours and flooding. This would be the worst-case scenario in my mind. That "early" timeline is not a guarantee — but enough of a possibility that you should consider alternate routes and/or alternate plans in case the weather does turn inclement or dangerous.

I believe the most likely time frame for flooding rains will be Thursday evening through the overnight hours, possibly lingering into Friday morning too.

Model consensus shows total rainfall ranging from a half-inch in South Jersey to 1-2" in central and northern New Jersey, with locally higher amounts. Those localized downpours are the sticky wicket here — 4+ inches of rain can't be ruled out, which is enough to flood even major roads.

Will everyone in the state flood? No. Will it be biblical, historic flooding? No. Should you take it seriously, and consider your outdoor plans and travel plans very carefully for both Thursday evening and Friday? Absolutely.

Friday NJ weather: Rain and flooding threat continues

Friday will not be a very nice weather day. However, in the context of coming off a horrendous heat wave, you may enjoy a day of clouds, raindrops, and unseasonably cool temperatures.

Steady to heavy rain may be ongoing as you wake up Friday morning, with showers and drizzle potentially lingering throughout the daytime hours. Skies will remain cloudy.

The combination of raindrops, clouds, and a stiff northeast breeze will keep temperatures from climbing much, if at all. I've settled on a high temperature forecast "around 70 degrees". Realistically, that is a range from about 65 to 75 degrees. Putting highs in the 60s here on the first of August is quite unusual, especially after three days near the triple digit mark — what a stark difference!

By Friday night, the cold front responsible for all the soggy, messy weather will make its final shove through New Jersey, ushering in cooler and much drier air. Low temperatures will likely bottom out around 60 degrees.

Saturday NJ weather: Sunny and refreshing

This weekend's weather will be far from typical for mid-summer. But I like this forecast a lot.

Skies will turn bright and sunny Saturday morning, with bargain-basement humidity. Seriously, dew points in the 40s will feel incredible after the thick soup of this week's heat wave.

High temperatures will technically be on the cool side of normal, in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. I think that is still warm enough to be considered pleasant. Just not all that "summerlike".

Sunday NJ weather: Dry air is delightful

With the low humidity, I would not be surprised to see some 50s on thermometers early mornings and late nights this weekend.

Sunday looks like a great day, as high temps warm into the lower 80s. Again, we should see plenty of sunshine with dry air and dry weather.

Sunshine and lower 80s look to continue through Monday and Tuesday too — again, a welcome payoff and sweet reward for surviving the steamy, stormy weather.

Our next rain chance looks to arrive in the middle of next week, around Wednesday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.