NJ dries out Monday, then winter ends with a whisper

The Bottom Line

Up to 3 inches of rain fell over New Jersey over the last 12 hours. On top of some wicked wind gusts as high as 50 mph. Nasty, wet weather. But as we have said so many times recently, we really needed the rain. With 100% of New Jersey still in "moderate" drought status, a soaking like this every week would do wonders for our spring bloom-up, reservoir levels, and wildfire danger.

Monday will not be a great weather day, with lingering dampness through the morning and then clouds holding through the afternoon. It is a cold front day, so temperatures will take a tumble as the day goes on.

But our new air mass will be a pleasant one. That means the final days of winter will feature bright skies, dry weather, and mild temperatures. The official start of spring — the Vernal Equinox — is early Thursday morning.

Our next chance of rain is forecast to arrive late Thursday.

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Monday

Even as of this writing (7 a.m.), the steady rain from overnight has started to break apart over New Jersey. Clearly, the heaviest downpours are behind us now.

Lingering dampness — showers, sprinkles, drizzle, etc. — are expected up to the early afternoon hours today. While it will not be raining everywhere — just hit or miss type stuff — you may need to make occasional use of the umbrella and/or windshield wipers.

After about 1 or 2 p.m., New Jersey will dry out for good.

Meanwhile, a brisk northwesterly wind will also kick up Monday afternoon. That is our new, cooler, drier air mass moving in. So temperatures will take a bit of a tumble, falling from the 50s in the morning into the 40s by late afternoon.

And then Monday evening will get pretty chilly. Low temperatures will end up near the freezing mark, in the lower 30s. But I doubt it will be cold enough for long enough for any significant icing concerns. Expect clearing skies (finally) overnight and continued breezy conditions.

Tuesday

Yes, it will be chilly and even frosty in the morning. But thermometers will jump upward quickly, making for a beautiful late winter day overall.

Expect sunny skies, a decreasing breeze, and dry weather. High temperatures should hit about 60 to 65 degrees for all but far NW NJ and the immediate coast.

Wednesday

Another pleasant day. Morning sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds. But we should stay completely dry for the last full day of winter. Look for highs in the lower to mid 60s.

Thursday

Spring officially springs at 5:01 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday. And we will squeeze out one more mild day to start the season.

A stiff breeze from the southeast will add moisture (humidity) to the air Thursday. Most of the day will be dry, although skies will become mostly cloudy to overcast.

Then our next batch of rain arrives with a cold front late Thursday. I could see initial raindrops creeping into New Jersey around 5 p.m., give or take. Everyone will get wet eventually. And, just like Sunday night's storm, pockets of heavy rain will be possible. (Although not a guarantee.)

Friday & Beyond

Rain should wrap up by daybreak Friday. And then clouds will quickly give way to sunshine. Friday will be a blustery day, with gusts to 40 mph and high temperatures only around 50 degrees.

Temps moderate into the first weekend of spring, with highs generally in the mid 50s for both days. I could see an isolated shower pop up late-day Saturday.

And then another storm system is showing up in forecast models for early next week, in the Monday-Tuesday time frame. The European favors a partially snowy scenario for New Jersey, with up to a few inches of accumulation. But I have to lean toward the warmer GFS solution, showing another inch of rain for the Garden State, at least for now.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.