The Bottom Line

Recapping the last four days: Tornadoes, beautiful, beautiful, unsettled.

Forecasting the next four days: Beautiful, unsettled, unsettled, wet.

Meanwhile, we are supposed to be in the hottest part of the year, the dog days of summer. But temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals for the majority of the week. Our next big surge of heat and humidity is probably about a week away.

Monday

As the headline suggests, this could very well be the nicest day of the week. (Friday will be a close second, FYI.)

The day begins with temperatures ranging from the upper 50s in North Jersey to the mid 60s along the southern coast. Pleasant all around.

Early patchy fog and low clouds will give way to sunny, blue skies for the majority of Monday. Our weather will stay dry. And as dew points drop into the 50s, our air will be dry and comfortable too.

Look for high temperatures between about 77 and 83 degrees Monday afternoon.

Monday night looks good too, with no weather issues. Clear, calm, and comfortable. Low temps will fall to around 60.

Tuesday

A very different weather day. No matter where in NJ you are, skies will become mostly cloudy to overcast. And I do think it will be a dry day for most of the state.

However, showers and sprinkles will probably clip the coast, mainly through the first half of the day. Rainfall totals will be completely unimpressive, only a few hundredths of an inch (if that).

High temperatures will be held to the upper 70s. Not August-like at all.

Wednesday

Almost a copy-and-paste of Tuesday. Lots of clouds. A chance of showers, especially south and coast. High temps in the upper 70s.

Thursday

The final day of this stretch of unsettled weather could be the wettest of the bunch across New Jersey. While not every model is in agreement, there's a good chance that periods of steadier rain envelop the state during the daytime hours on Thursday.

While not a very nice day overall, I'm not prepared to call Thursday a total washout yet. If we do get some breaks of sun, temps will push to about the 80-degree mark.

The Extended Forecast

Friday looks good, as long as lingering rain exits by sunrise. We'll warm up, with a mix of sun and clouds, to the seasonable mid 80s. Humidity levels will remain manageable.

Saturday is tricky. GFS shows a block of steady rain traveling through the Garden State. Euro shows at least scattered thunderstorms. The duration and intensity of rainfall would obviously affect temperatures. I'm not ready to make a definitive call at this point - hopefully we'll see some improvements to this forecast as the week presses on.

Sunday looks hotter, pushing closer to 90 degrees. And long-range models show ferocious heat and steamy humidity building in for next week, with widespread 90s and even 100s on thermometers through about the midpoint of August.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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