The Bottom Line

There are two storm systems set to track through New Jersey this week. The first will cause scattered rain then a brisk wind on Monday. And the second will cause wet weather from Wednesday night into Thursday. Yes, Thursday is Thanksgiving Day — and yes, the day will start wet. But I'm optimistic it won't be a total washout. And at least Turkey Day temperatures will be on the mild side too.

Monday

Wet, then windy. But nothing overly ferocious.

As a cold front approaches from the west, it is a "windshield wipers on" kind of morning. Pockets of scattered rain will continue pushing from west to east through New Jersey, until about midday (11-12-1). It feels rather sticky outside, thanks to temperatures in the upper 50s and relatively high humidity in the air. That will help to fuel some heavier pockets of rain, and maybe even some rumbles of thunder.

Almost instantaneously, the rain will end, the sun will come out, and a brisk northwesterly wind will kick up Monday afternoon. Top wind gusts will be over 30 mph. Not enough to ring alarm bells for widespread power and travel difficulties. But it will feel blustery. Especially as temperatures fall through the 40s.

And Monday night, we return to the cold side of normal. Overnight lows should bottom out around the lower to mid 30s. A frost is likely and a freeze is possible, for non-urban and non-coastal portions of the state. It will be clear and dry. And possibly a bit breezy still, adding an extra nip to the air.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny skies, lighter winds, and chilly temperatures. Highs only reach the mid to (maybe) upper 40s. That is 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals.

Another frost/freeze looks likely for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.

Wednesday

Temperatures will become more seasonable, as highs increase to the mid 50s or so. Clouds will be on the increase too, becoming mostly cloudy and then possibly overcast. While the daytime hours look dry, rain chances will increase Wednesday night.

Thanksgiving Day (Thursday)

It is probably going to rain Thursday. But there are many reasons for optimism here:
1.) Rain will probably last for only the morning.
2.) It will be showery and light.
3.) No wind.
4.) Nothing wintry.
5.) Temperatures will remain mild.

If all goes well, we'll dry out into Thursday afternoon, with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 60s.

Black Friday & Beyond

As the holiday weekend continues, Black Friday looks dry and reasonably pleasant, with highs still near 60 degrees.

Saturday will bring some cloud cover and maybe a few midday rain showers. Again, no cooldown yet with highs around 60.

The current forecast for Sunday calls for skies progressing from sun to clouds, with highs in the 50s.

And then long-range models paint the potential for two significant storm systems next week - one early (Monday-ish) and one late (Friday-ish). 'Tis the season for watching these things very closely. Even though we look at the 7 to 11 day forecast with a very large grain of salt, guidance has persistently shown our weather pattern transitioning to one more favorable for active weather. And possibly more wintry weather too. Stay tuned!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.