Looking ‘blah’ and feeling raw Monday: Cloudy, drizzly and cool
It was certainly a less-than-ideal weekend for the Garden State. A powerful coastal storm spinning over the Atlantic Ocean spit clouds and showers toward the Jersey Shore, keeping conditions damp and grey. Tides ran high and temperatures ran cool.
Monday will be almost exactly the same. Cloudy skies. Cool temperatures, only climbing a few degrees into the lower to mid 40s. Breezy early, with winds calming later. Models have backed off the idea of steady rain, but occasional waves of drizzle will come onshore.
In NW NJ, temperatures are hovering around the freezing mark Monday morning. If any of that drizzle reaches that far inland, it's conceivable it falls as freezing drizzle — that looks like rain, feels like rain, and tastes like rain, but freezes on contact with a cold surface. A Winter Weather Advisory continues until 10 a.m. for Sussex, Warren, Morris, and western Passaic counties.
We're also watching the Jersey Shore. Brisk northeasterly winds will push water toward our coastline — storm surge, on the order of 1 to 2 feet. That's enough to cause minor to moderate flooding of tidal waterways. High tide will occur in the 11 a.m. hour along the oceanfront, and as late as 3 p.m. on back bays.
A Coastal Flood Advisory (downgraded from a warning) is in effect for the entire Jersey Shore, until 4 p.m. Monday.
As our coastal storm shoves out to sea, one last burst of showers is expected Monday night. I'm seeing mainly rain, but let's not rule out a few snowflakes in North Jersey. Any and all precipitation in the state should end by daybreak Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 30s.
I'm happy to say that Tuesday will be a much brighter and warmer weather day. Look for substantial breaks of sunshine (especially central and southern NJ), pushing the temperature to about 50 degrees. As a weak impulse rides through New Jersey's atmosphere Tuesday night, an insignificant sprinkle or flurry is possible.
Wednesday turns slightly cooler, with highs in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees. It will be a mostly sunny and breezy day.
I'm liking Thursday's forecast. Even though clouds will be on the increase, highs should reach into the lower 50s. That is just a hair below normal for late November.
And then Friday will be the warmest day of the week, as thermometers pop above 60 degrees for the first time in 10 days. It's not a perfect forecast though, with mostly cloudy skies and increasing rain chances late-day.
That rain is ahead of a cold front that will sweep through the state Friday night through Saturday morning. The current temperature profile would favor almost all rain, with a brief period of light snow on the backside. (No accumulation worries for now.)
As it stands now, that precipitation exits early Saturday, and the rest of the day will bring partial clearing and chilly temperatures in the mid 40s. Sunday looks quiet but still cool, with partly sunny skies and highs in the upper 40s.