Heads up, NJ: Strong storms ahead with wind, rain, and bad timing

The Bottom Line

Wednesday is going to be an active weather day for New Jersey. A storm system will approach from the southwest with a history of wind damage and a few tornadoes across the Southern Plains and Deep South.

A large storm will envelop the Northeast and mid-Atlantic with inclement and severe weather Wednesday. (Accuweather)

Best-case scenario: An inch of healthy rainfall. Yes, conditions would be soggy and sloppy for a few hours. But we really need the rain.

Worst-case scenario: Wind, hail, flooding, lightning, and power outages are added to the mix. Maybe even an isolated tornado. (The risk of a tornado is low, but not zero.)

Unfortunately, the stormiest weather will coincide with Wednesday's evening rush hour. That means you will want to carefully consider your plans for the day, and stay extra-aware of the rapidly changing weather conditions.

Beyond Wednesday's wet and windy weather, a blustery cooldown is ahead for Thursday. Followed by calmer, seasonably cool weather for the upcoming weekend.

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Wednesday

Top impacts by the numbers: About an inch of rain and wind gusts to 50 mph. Everyone in New Jersey will get wet.
While "severe" impacts — wind hail, tornado — are not guaranteed, the risk is high enough to ring some alarm bells here.

Wednesday's severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center puts most of the state in a marginal or slight risk for damaging winds, hail, and an isolated tornado. (NOAA / SPC)

The first half of the day will be murky, but not quite stormy yet.

As a warm front lifts northward through New Jersey, temperatures will surge into the 50s. (As of this writing, that has already happened for the bulk of southern and central NJ.) Some spots could even exceed 60 degrees. Skies will be cloudy, and a spot shower is possible at any time.

One special hazard — before storms even arrive — is wind, expected to gust as high as 40 to 50 mph by early afternoon. The strongest gusts will be along New Jersey's coastal counties, where the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory from Noon to 6 p.m.

A Wind Advisory (tan) covers NJ coastal counties from Noon to 6 p.m. Wednesday, as powerful 50 mph gusts blow through. (NOAA / NWS)

Starting Wednesday mid-afternoon — around 2 or 3 p.m. — we will have to watch the western sky for a widespread band of rain moving in. It will likely be moderate to heavy in intensity right at the onset. And rainfall will be steady for several hours in any given location.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected to arrive in western New Jersey around mid-afternoon Wednesday. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

An embedded squall line — a concentrated north-south band of strong thunderstorms — is expected to move west to east across New Jersey in the late afternoon to early evening time frame. Let's call it 4 p.m. to 7 p.m. Perfect timing for the evening rush hour.

The brunt of Wednesday's storms will be around 5 or 6 p.m., as torrential rain and gusty winds heavily affect the evening commute. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

Later Wednesday evening, around 9 or 10 p.m., the main band of rain will exit New Jersey and weather conditions will improve. Lingering showers and fog are possible through the overnight hours.

Rain should largely wrap up by around 10 p.m. Wednesday evening, although you may catch some lingering showers and fog overnight. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

Temperatures will probably dip into the 40s overnight. There is no danger of icing (or any wintry weather) at any point before, during, or after Wednesday's storm system.

Thursday

Thursday will be a blustery day, featuring a chilly brisk wind and falling temperatures.

Showers should wrap up by daybreak Thursday morning. (A couple of model solutions do show some raindrops through mid-morning, but a frontal passage and rapidly drying air should put a definitive end to raindrops early.)

Temperatures Thursday morning will briefly spike into the lower 50s. But they will not stay there all day.

Thursday's high temperatures are still technically on the mild side, with 50s on thermometers in the early morning. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

As a cold front once again opens the door to colder, drier air Thursday, temperatures will tumble through the 40s Thursday afternoon. A gusty wind to 30 mph is likely throughout the day too.

Thursday will be another big cooldown day, as temps tumble about 10 to 15 degrees by late afternoon. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

Thursday night will be a freeze for most of New Jersey, with average low temperatures in the upper 20s.

Friday

Our weather settles down on Friday, and we might squeeze out a pleasant, seasonably cool day.

With plenty of sunshine, high temperatures will reach the upper 40s. That is par for the course for early March. So not much to complain about there.

I just wonder if it is going to be too breezy Friday. Top gusts may exceed 20 mph, keeping that cool air moving around.

The Weekend & Beyond

There is one little snag in the forecast this weekend: A brief rain/snow shower early Saturday morning.

It will not amount to much, but there are a lot of outdoor activities happening around the Garden State this weekend. We are in the heart of St. Patrick's Day parade season, after all.

Most of Saturday will be dry, and partial sunshine should resume by Noon at the latest. High temperatures will settle in the mid 40s — slightly below seasonal norms.

For now, I'm keeping Sunday's outlook consistent. Partly sunny and mid 40s. Forecast models show a sizable storm system passing south of New Jersey. It is close enough to keep an eye on, for potential snowflakes. But my current forecast keeps NJ completely dry.

Guidance favors another warmup next week, as cold air retreats farther and farther north as March goes along. If all goes well, I could see some 70s in New Jersey by the middle of next week. (Not permanent spring warmth — but a couple days of near-record temperatures.)

Be safe and stay dry out there Wednesday.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center