Tuesday NJ weather: The coolest, breeziest day of the week
The Bottom Line
This is a predominantly dry forecast. It also starts breezy and cool. But the week will end warm and toasty, as summerlike temperatures return.
Fire danger remains elevated, due to the wind and dry conditions. We could really use a good soaking soon — and those wishes may just come true next weekend.
An area of low pressure is spinning over eastern Canada, sending a little disturbance through the northeastern United States. It's just barely clipping New Jersey, but we will feel some impacts during the day Tuesday.
Most prominent will be a stiff westerly breeze, with regular gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Definitely noticeable, definitely raising wildfire concerns, and probably a nuisance.
This will be a "Tale of Two Jerseys" day. In other words, your weather experience may vary from one end of the state to the other.
To the north, Tuesday will start mostly cloudy to overcast. A sprinkle may even creep in from Pennsylvania at some point through lunchtime. Skies should brighten into the afternoon. Highs will only reach the lower 50s, decidedly below normal for mid-April.
To the south, sunshine wins. Highs will push into the lower 60s, close to seasonal average for this time of year.
The breeze will calm as night falls. Under mainly clear skies, temperatures will end up on the chilly side. Patchy frost is possible, but I don't think it will be a widespread concern for gardeners and farmers. Look for overnight lows averaging upper 30s to around 40 degrees.
Another warmup kicks in, with each day up to 10 degrees warmer than the previous one.
Wednesday will still be breezy at times, especially through the morning. We should enjoy mostly sunny skies and dry weather statewide. High temperatures will improve to the lower to mid 60s.
Overall, a nice spring day.
Now we're talking seriously beautiful weather. (Looking past the fact that we really need some rain to mitigate drought, fire danger, and pollen levels.)
With a mix of sun and clouds, high temperatures Thursday afternoon will spike into the lower to mid 70s. Running about 10 degrees above normal, feeling more like May than April.
Those along the Jersey Shore should be careful about celebrating the warmup though. A sea breeze would kill that warmup real quick — barrier islands could be as cool as the 50s here.
Even warmer. Away from the coast, at least.
Highs will push into the lower to mid 80s across inland New Jersey. I'll call humidity levels moderate — the air won't be dry, but it will be comfortable. (Dew points climbing into the 50s.)
Expect partly sunny skies and no wind or rain worries Friday.
The Weekend & Beyond
Saturday has the potential to be similar to Friday. Probably cloudier and a few degrees cooler. But my current forecast keeps the daytime hours dry.
Our next storm system will be a cold front, likely to produce widespread steady to heavy rain late Saturday night into part of Sunday.
One forecast model — the GFS — keeps that front stalled over New Jersey for much of Sunday, leading to a wet day. The Euro model is more progressive, dumping a quick inch on the Garden State Sunday morning, before departing in the afternoon.
Besides rain, the other impact of that front will be a cooldown. We'll probably end up closer to 60 degrees again for the second half of the weekend and early next week.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.