Thursday NJ weather: Brief warmup, with several rain chances too
I have four chances of rain to tell you about over the next seven days. Two little, two more substantial.
Thursday actually looks like a decent weather day. Early sunshine will give way to increasing clouds. Winds will be considerably lighter than Wednesday. Sure, you'll need a jacket — morning temperatures are hovering in the 30s, followed by lower 50s Thursday afternoon.
A weak storm system will approach New Jersey Thursday evening, presenting the chance for a shower. Light, brief, and rain only.
The rest of Thursday night won't get that cold, thanks to cloud cover and a breeze kicking up. Overnight lows dip into the lower 40s.
Friday turns mostly cloudy and windy, with early wind gusts at or above 30 mph. It will be a bit warmer, although I've had to temper my temperature forecast slightly due to the earlier arrival of a cold front. Look for mid to upper 50s, still our first trip above-normal since last Monday (Veteran's Day).
Another quick round of rain is expected from Friday midday into Friday afternoon. Most model runs have painted rain showers here, although the latest GFS shows some heavier rainfall. In either case, we're once again talking about brief wet weather — nothing extended, and nothing wintry.
That rain is thanks to a cold front, leading to a cooldown for the weekend. (Can you believe this is the last full weekend of November already?)
Saturday's high temperatures will only reach the mid 40s. Skies will progress from sun to clouds.
A more substantial storm system will start pushing into southwestern New Jersey as early as Saturday mid-afternoon. For most of the state, we'll get soaked Saturday night, as steady to heavy rain slides right over us. Models are pushing out about an inch of rain, give or take.
It's worth mentioning that there could be some wintry mix late Saturday night, but only in far northwestern New Jersey (looking at you, Sussex and Warren counties). For everyone else, it'll be just cold, uncomfortable rain.
I suspect steady rain will wrap up early Sunday morning, by around 7 a.m. Lingering (rain) showers will be possible through midday Sunday. It will be breezy with gradually clearing skies. High temperatures should be around 50 degrees.
Early next week looks quiet. Sunshine and lower 50s on Monday. Partly sunny and mid 50s on Tuesday.
We're still watching a storm system for Wednesday, the big pre-Thanksgiving travel day. It is a cold front, which will also introduce some colder air for the holiday itself. (But it's not looking like the intense arctic blast we had last Turkey Day and Black Friday.)
Anyway, our precipitation chances Wednesday will hinge entirely on whether an area of low pressure rides along the front, leading to enhanced rainfall. Latest run of the GFS says no. Latest run of the Euro shows an impulse staying west of New Jersey. Both of these solutions would lead to some rain during the day Wednesday, but not a soaker. And again, we're still talking about just rain for now.
Given the thousands of New Jerseyans hitting the road on Wednesday, we'll continue to monitor this situation closely. Resolution and confidence will continue to grow, especially once this weekend's storm system departs.