NJ weather: Tracking three more storm systems over the next week
UPDATE... This article is outdated...
For the latest winter storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.
The Bottom Line
And you thought our wild, wintry weather was over? Ha!
The next week looks quite active, with a total of three storm systems under investigation at the moment. Where there are no earth-shattering, record-breaking, blockbuster storms in the forecast yet, we still face some treacerous travel conditions.
Tuesday will bring light snow accuulations to North Jersey only. Thursday could be more impactful. And another there's another interesting setup for the weekend, but it's too early for clear details.
It's cold! Anything wet, slushy, or remotely fluffy outside on Sunday has frozen solid Monday morning. Sorry to say if you put off shoveling or cleaning off your car, that task will now be much more difficult.
Temperatures are mainly in the teens and 20s to start this Monday, with some wind chills in the single digits. Temperatures for all but the southern coast will be stuck below-freezing all day, topping out close to 30 degrees. Any little breeze will definitely bite.
At least it will be sunny and dry.
A weak little wave will pass just north of New Jersey, driving in another (limited) chance of snow. My policy is to draw a snow map when snowfall is forecast to exceed 2 inches. And that's where we are.
The timing of this snow/mix/rain event will be from early Tuesday morning (3 a.m.) through early Tuesday afternoon (1 p.m.)
To describe the anticipated impacts, let's break the state into three pieces:
—North of Interstate 78… Light snow for the duration. 2 to 4 inches of accumulation.
—Between Interstates 78 & 195… Light snow will transition to light wintry mix and then light rain. A coating to an inch of accumulation is possible. More concerningly, a trace of ice is a possibility too.
—South of Interstate 195… Just a smattering of raindrops. Little to no accumulation and travel issues. The farther south you go, the drier it will be.
Overall, a fairly minor winter weather event. One of those things that you hesitate to even call a "storm". But the threat of snow and ice will be just enough to cause some road headaches. Especially in North Jersey, where we are rapidly running out of places to plow/shovel snow!
Another notable piece of news about Tuesday: It will be the warmest day of the week! Mid 30s north, mid 40s south. Probably North Jersey's only trip above-freezing through the end of the weekend.
Back to quiet weather for a whole day. Partly sunny skies, with high temperatures in the mid 30s — that's still 5-ish degrees below seasonal normals.
And here we go again. The track of this next storm system is a little farther south than Tuesday's. That puts us on the cold side of the storm, which makes widespread snow more likely. NJ will also be under (or at least close to) the center of low pressure, and therefore closer to heavier precipitation bands.
Early model guidance suggests that snowfall could max out around 6 inches from this one. And as I often say, that is the lower edge of what I'd consider a "heavy" or "major" snow event, with significant travel and infrastructure challenges. Timing looks to be early Thursday into early Friday, with some breaks along the way
There could be some pockets of mixing and/or rain, based on the exact track and temperatures. And obviously that would restrict who would see upwards of a half-foot of fresh snow. We'll work on piecing together a more precise forecast starting Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. One storm at a time, folks.
Models get very muddled about a potential storm system for the Saturday-Sunday time frame. (Weather is the ultimate example of "chaos theory" — what happens with the Tuesday and Thursday storms will directly impact how thing set up for the weekend.) I think a nor'easter-ish track is a possibility, which opens the door to lots of possible weather outcomes. Accumulating snow? Ice? Heavy rain? All of the above? Yup, all on the table. And that's about all we can say right now.
An even colder bubble of arctic air looks to arrive at the tail end of the weekend too. Joy.