The Bottom Line
Several waves of low pressure will ride along a frontal boundary to produce 3 or 4 spurts of rain over New Jersey through midweek. So we’re grabbing the umbrella - but not necessarily the jacket, as temperatures stay on the warm side of normal.
Despite the unsettled forecast, we can look for some bright spots of dry, sunnier weather along the way.
After summerlike 80s on Sunday, it’s going to be considerably cooler across most of New Jersey on Monday (by 10+ degrees).
It’s a comfortable start to the day, with temperatures on either side of 60 degrees. Sunshine will be very limited. And a passing shower will be possible at any time throughout the day - you might want to carry an umbrella, just in case.
High temperatures will be limited to the mid-upper 60s in North Jersey and along the Jersey Shore. Farther south and east, it will be considerably warmer, assuming we get some pops of sunshine. 80 degrees is a possibility for inland South Jersey at some point Monday afternoon.
The biggest push of rain of the day looks to be a complex of thunderstorms Monday evening, in the 7 p.m. to 3 a.m. time frame. Steadier, heavier rain (maybe some downpours) and rumbles of thunder are expected. Severe or wintry weather is unlikely. Fog may develop by Tuesday morning too.
Here’s a bright spot: We should squeeze out dry weather during the daytime hours Tuesday. We’ll see periods of sun and clouds, pushing high temperatures into the 70s across the state. Once again, 80+ is possible around inland South Jersey. It will feel somewhat humid too.
However, late-day Tuesday - let’s say, starting around 5 p.m. - we’ll be watching the sky again for a few showers and thunderstorms.
One more push of rain showers will accompany a cold front Wednesday morning. And then, as skies clear out and dry out, we’ll pick up a stiff northwesterly breeze into the afternoon. High temperatures should still pop into the lower-mid 70s. The second half of the day looks good.
Cooler air returns on Thursday. Although patchy frost is possible early Thursday morning in NW NJ, it does not look to be a widespread thing - most of the state will only dip into the 40s. High temperatures will be limited to the lower-mid 60s, slightly below seasonal normals. Skies will be bright and sunny, with calming winds.
The Extended Forecast
Model guidance suggests a storm system will develop off-shore on Friday, spreading clouds throughout New Jersey. And probably throwing some showers toward the Jersey Shore too. It doesn’t look like a nice day, especially with high temperatures potentially stuck in the 50s.
After that, heading into the Mother’s Day Weekend, I have to admit the forecast gets really muddled. Models have been completely flip-flopping between warm-and-cool and dry-and-wet with each successive run. So overall forecast confidence is very low. Rather than taking a stab in the dark, I’m going to wait until tomorrow (at least) to make a call. That is why I only produce a 5 Day Forecast, after all - after 5 days out, forecast skill becomes very low.