Another potent multi-impact storm aims for NJ: Timeline and impacts

The big weather story of the week continues to be a complicated, potentially significant storm system setup that will play out over the next few days. It actually involves two pieces of atmospheric energy interacting with each other. And the first one swings by New Jersey Tuesday. We will see clouds increase and some spotty showers brush past South Jersey and the Jersey Shore. It will be cool and breezy, once again in the 50s. Most of Wednesday stays quiet. Then the brunt of the storm comes on Thursday, with periods of heavy rain and wind. Up to 2 inches of rain, 40 mph wind gusts, minor coastal flooding, and severe weather are on the table here. It does look like our weather will dry out just in time for Halloween on Friday. But New Jersey will be quite windy for trick-or-treating.

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Before the Storm: Tuesday & Wednesday

As one storm system clips New Jersey and swings out to sea, we will see some marginally unsettled weather on Tuesday. Especially along the southern and eastern edges of the state.

Meanwhile, to the north and west, sunshine will continue for at least the first half of Tuesday. Clouds will build from the south through Tuesday afternoon. Spotty showers and patchy drizzle will be possible in South Jersey and along the Jersey Shore too — don't expect much more than some nuisance raindrops.

No matter where you are, it will be a breezy and cool day. High temperatures will go no further than the mid 50s or so.

Tuesday night will feature more of the same, scattered clouds and maybe a shower. Low temperatures will dip into the mid 40s.

The daytime hours on Wednesday look OK. Skies will be mostly cloudy, with a stiff northeasterly breeze. Highs will only again get stuck in the mid-upper 50s.

Steady rain is set to arrive Wednesday evening.

During the Storm: Wednesday Night & Thursday

Wet weather in New Jersey looks confined to the period of 10 p.m. Wednesday to 10 p.m. Thursday. The brunt of this storm, with the heaviest rain and strongest wind, will be during the daytime hours Thursday. For now, I will call that 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Rumbles of thunder and severe weather are possible within that window too.

Remember, while this is being called a "coastal storm" or a "nor'easter," the main area of low pressure will be tracking over land this time. (In contrast to the storm system a week and a half ago which tracked over the ocean.) So widespread rain and wind will be the primary impacts, rather than coastal flooding.

Overall impacts from the storm will be significant. Worth noting. Potentially hazardous. But I'm not sure we need to overly hype this one, folks. It just does not read like a deadly, disastrous, or historic storm (I'm happy to say!) Here is a rundown of the forecast impacts:
—Total rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches. While ponding and flooding is possible, this is generally healthy much-needed rain.
—Wind gusts to 40 mph. That is enough to cause sporadic power outages. For the record, this would be for both inland and coastal New Jersey. And would be both during and after the storm.
—Coastal flooding in the minor to localized moderate category. Storm surge looks to reach the 1 to 2 foot range for a couple high tide cycles, due to the strong northeasterly winds. There could be some beach erosion too. Obviously, it would be a bad idea to go swimming in the ocean for the duration.
—Severe weather is a possibility, in terms of thunderstorm wind gusts and even an isolated tornado. Lightning and thunder is possible if storms really get going. We are going to be in a turbulent section of the storm, with plenty of moisture and energy to feed on. It's just something else to watch, especially if stormy conditions are ongoing through Thursday afternoon.

After the Storm: Halloween Friday

I am even more confident that rain will wrap up just in time for Halloween festivities on Friday. The day looks completely dry, with sunshine emerging by lunchtime.

That's the good news.

Unfortunately, Friday will be quite windy, with continuing gusts to 30 or 40 mph. It will also be relatively cool, with high temperatures only in the mid 50s. Temperatures will be chilly once the sun goes down too.

So be sure you secure your holiday decorations tightly. And plan your costume layers appropriately.

The weather for the first weekend of November simmers down, as sunshine, dry weather, and lighter winds prevail. Temperatures will likely stay just below normal for both Saturday and Sunday, near the 60-degree mark.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.