The Bottom Line

As the headline of this post suggests, we are now diving into the dead of winter — on average, this week and next week are New Jersey's coldest of the year. January is also our 2nd driest month of the year (behind only February). So it's not incredibly surprising that we haven't had measurable rainfall or snowfall in over a week. It's just unsettling, especially from a hydrological (drought) standpoint.

We also haven't had temperatures either warmer or colder than the 40s for a week. The consistently quiet, dry, seasonable weather will continue for a few more days. However, we do have some subtle changes coming late-week: 1.) A slow warmup, and 2.) Some light rain/snow.

Monday

Temperatures really tanked overnight, leading to one of the coldest mornings of the season so far. (Calm winds and dry air are the main culprits.) We're starting off in the teens and 20s — so bundle up with hat and gloves, and expect to find a frosty windshield.

High temperatures for Monday will reach the lower 40s. Skies will turn mostly cloudy or even overcast, and I can't rule out a sprinkle or flurry at some point.

As skies clear partially, another freeze is likely away from the coast Monday night. But I don't think it'll be as cold as last night, with lows in the upper 20s to around 30 degrees.

Tuesday

A bit brighter, but temperatures holding steady. Beneath a mix of sun and clouds, highs will once again hit lower 40s Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday

The sun comes out, and we'll stay dry with a light southwesterly breeze. That alone will make for a pleasant January day. In addition, our subtle warming trend will kick in, as high temps push into the mid 40s.

Thursday

Turning cloudier again, but also slightly warmer. Upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Friday & Beyond

On Friday, even more locations should pop to the 50-degree mark, running about 10 degrees above seasonal normals. Skies will be partly sunny.

Our next storm system will be a little wave expected to sweep through New Jersey from Friday night into Saturday. Model guidance consensus suggests a couple periods of light rain and snow are likely through the day Saturday. It's not going to amount to much, but it would mark a change in our stagnant, silent weather pattern.
I do not anticipate any accumulations or travel impacts. High temperatures will return to the 40s.

Sunday's forecast shows partly sunny skies and low 40s — back to blah, blah, blah weather. The next storm system opportunity worth watching would be around the middle of next week.

Bundle up, and have a great week!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.