A look at the first ever 12-team College Football Playoffs

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History will be made this year with the new 12-team NCAA College Football Playoff, which will surely provide a few twists and turns on the way to crowning a new National Champion.

With last year's champ, Michigan, not in the field, we will have a new college football champion.

This college football season has had its fair share of upsets, near upsets, and teams coming out of nowhere to land in the first-ever 12-team playoff field.

While the Oregon Ducks (+350) are the lone unbeaten team (13-0) and the No. 1 seed, there is no clear-cut favorite to win this year's title. The Texas Longhorns are also +350 at some NJ sportsbooks but are the consensus No. 2 team in the betting market.

The playoffs open with First Round games on campus at the higher seed on Friday, Dec. 20. The winners will advance to the quarterfinals and semifinals, which will take place at the six New Year’s Six bowl games sites; the Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Peach (quarterfinals) as well as the Orange and Cotton (semifinals).  The two remaining teams will play for the CFB National Championship on Jan 20 in Atlanta.

Here are the First Round matchups:

(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame (-7.5)
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State (-8.5)
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas (-11)
(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State (-7.5)

Odds to Win National Championship 

(Odds provided by NJBet, New Jersey's betting and casino comparison site)

• Oregon: +350
• Texas: +350
• Georgia: +400
• Ohio State: +500
• Penn State: +650
• Notre Dame: +850
• Tennessee: +2500
• Indiana: +4000
• Arizona State: +5000
• Clemson: +5000
• SMU: +5000
• Boise State: +6000

A look at the favorites

While Oregon is the top seed, they might have a more difficult path to the finals, taking on the winner of the (9)Tennessee-(8) Ohio State game and might have to face Texas in the semifinals. The Ducks offer decent value as a favorite and are led by Heisman Trophy finalist quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is one of two quarterbacks with 3,000 passing yards and 70% completion percentage in 2024, along with Shedeur Sanders.

As for Texas, if they are going to capture their first national title since 2005, they will lean on quarterback Quinn Ewers, wide receiver Matthew Golden, who had 162 receiving yards against Georgia in the SEC Championship game loss, and a stingy defense that allowed just 12.5 points per game this season, second-fewest in the NCAA. 

Georgia's success could ride on the availability of QB Carson Beck, who left the teams SEC Championship game win over Texas. The Bulldogs did down Texas both times they played this season, and have never lost go Notre Dame, who would be their opponent if the FIghting Irish knock off Indiana.  Georiga has never faced the Hoosiers, but was undefeated against teams in the 2024 CFP field (defeated Clemson, Tennessee and Texas twice) this season.

A look at the value plays

The three teams listed above have the shortes odds to win the CFP, but Ohio State, Penn State and Notre Damew offer better value and more bang for your buck.  

Ohio State is coming off a disappointing loss to Michigan, but still boast the nations top defense, giving up just 10.9 points per game. The Buckeyes have allowed fewer than 20 points in 11 games this season, giving up over 20 just once, in a loss to Oregon - who they would face if they get past Tennesse in Round One. For Ohio State, quarterback Will Howard is a dual threat, recording six games with two passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown this season.

Penn State is a tough team to trust in big games, while the have been excellent at home (18-3) since 2022 with all three losses coming against AP Top-5 teams.  The trust factor comes from their past under head coach James Franklin, who is 1-14 vs AP top-5 teams since becoming Penn State Head Coach, including 0-2 this season against teams currently in the CFP field (lost to Ohio State & Oregon). While they are a touchdown favorite against SMU in Round One, they would face Boise State, meaning they would likely be the favorite in all games until they got to the semifinals. If you're looking for some value Penn State has a pretty good path to provide that for you. If Penn State makes it to the end of the road, it will be behind a defense that ranks eighth in PPG allowed. Penn State QB Drew Allar likes his tight end, Tyler Warren, who has over 1,000 yards receiving and has a terrific running back tandem with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton both getting over 800 rushing yards this season.

Notre Dame is an interesting team, they had a tremendous season, but their lone loss came against unranked Northern Illinios. The Fighting Irish have won by a margin of 26.3 points per game, second best in NCAA this season.  Notre Dame has a tremendous rushing attack with quarterback Riley Leonard and running back Jeremiyah Love who has recorded a rushing touchdown in 12 straight games, best in school history.  The Irish have scored 30 or more points in eight consecutive games, and has won seven straight games by 14+ points.  Notre Dame has a favorable path the the CFB Championship game, so there is value here. 

The Longshots

After the teams mentioned above, there is a group of teams that would be considered longshots if you look at their odds, but they each have an interesting story to tell. 

Tennessee (+2500)

The Vols have a stingy defense and running back Dylan Sampson, who has 22 rushing touchdowns this season, the most in a season in Tennessee history. 

Indiana (+4000)

The Hoosiers have been dominant for most of the season, with their lone loss coming against Ohio State on the road.  They have a tremendous offense, led by QB Kurtis Rourke, scoring 40 or more points in eight games

Arizona State (+5000)

The Sun Devils were picked to finish last in Big 12 before the preseason, now they have a fiurst-round bye in the CFP. Arizona is led by running back Cam Skattebo with over 1,500 yards rushing, 500 yards and 19 rushing touchdowns this season. 

Clemson (+5000)

The Tigers would be the first three-loss national champion in the AP Poll Era, making it into the field after knocking off SMU in the ACC title game.  Quarterback Cade Klubnik, threw 33 TD's and running back Phil Mafah, who rushed for 1,106 rushing yards this season.

SMU (+5000)

SMU was a surprise engtory into the field after losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, but they have a high powered offense that can surprise any team in the field. The Mustangs rank sixth in PPG this season with QB Kevin Jennings, who has recorded 22 passing touchdowns and five rushing touchdowns this season. Running back Brashard Smith rushed for 1,270 yards and 14 rushing touchdowns.

Bosie State (+6000)

The Broncos might be the most interesting team in the field, their lone loss was to favorite and No. 1 seed Oregon on a last second field goal as time expired, showing they can hang with any team here. 

Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty rushed for 2,497 yards, going over 125 rushing yards in 13 games this season.

While they are the longest shot, they might offer the best value in the field, at +6000 and no clear-cut favorite, I like the Broncos as a value play. 

The Pick:

It might be boring, but at +350 odds and bonus bets, there is enough value for me to take Oregon, who I think is the best team in the field.  While they have a tough path, they have the best QB in the tourney with Dillon Gabriel being one of two quarterbacks with 3,000 passing yards and 70% completion percentage in 2024 and had 153 career TD's second most of all-time.

I'll take the Ducks to win it all on January 20th. 

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