Unsettled, rainy weather returns to NJ: More showery than soaking

The Bottom Line

About 24 hours from now, it is probably going to be raining in New Jersey. For the first time in a week and a half.

We are finally getting a good handle on this storm system setup, after battling for several days whether it would be a soaker or a sprinkler. My final answer: The latter, lighter option.

Having said that, there is tropical moisture in play here. And that always warrants raising an eyebrow to the potential of localized downpours. I am not worried about flooding though, as the ground is dry and extra-thirsty.

One additional complication is just how long our weather will stay unsettled. While Wednesday is a "carry the umbrella" day, the area of low pressure that forms off the Jersey Shore is going to linger for a while. That may spit some clouds and showers toward our coastline all the way through the start of the weekend.

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Tuesday

Tuesday will be different, as clouds and humidity enter the air. But otherwise, fine.

We are starting off in the 60s to start Tuesday — New Jersey's warmest morning in over two weeks, since the first of September.

High temperatures will reach the mid to upper 70s. Similar to Monday, and close to normal for this time of year.

I'm calling the day "mostly cloudy" overall. Realistically, pretty thick cloud cover will be present in southern New Jersey, with breaks of blue farther north. Humidity levels will be "moderate" with dew points in the 60s.

Tuesday looks mainly dry across the Garden State, although an isolated sprinkle if possible at any time.

With a persistent (although light) on-shore breeze, the surf along the Jersey Shore is still all churned up. A high risk of dangerous rip currents is posted through Tuesday and Wednesday.

Diving into Tuesday evening, the later it gets, the higher the chance of rain. Initial showers may arrive any time between sunset and after Midnight.

Wednesday

The wettest day of the month so far — although that is not saying much.

Scattered pockets of rain will traverse New Jersey throughout the day. The wettest corner of the state looks to be to the south and east. North and west, there may be little to no rain at all.

Rainfall totals will generally stay below a quarter-inch. (Even below a tenth of an inch for inland NJ.) But if a localized downpour develops, there is a chance for totals to quickly exceed an inch. (Again, that is the "slight chance" exception here — only worth mentioning as a possibility.)

So expect an unsettled and occasionally wet day. But not a washout. Definitely cloudy and cooler, with highs only reaching the lower 70s at best.

Thursday

As low pressure lingers off the coast, a few showers remain possible on Thursday. Especially along the eastern edge of New Jersey.

Farther inland, we should see breaks of sun. And everyone will benefit from lower, more comfortable humidity levels.

High temperatures on Thursday will push back into the mid 70s. If you can manage to stay dry, it will be a pleasant day.

Friday

Same situation for Friday. There is a chance for isolated to spotty showers, mainly for the coast. (One forecast model — the Euro — puts a resurgence of heavy rain over NJ.) Otherwise partly sunny and seasonable, in the mid 70s again.

The Extended Forecast

If all goes well, that pesky coastal low will depart just in time for the weekend. Leaving us with dry weather, clearer skies, and a crisp air mass.

However, I still can't rule out a coastal shower or two at some point.

High temperatures are forecast to descend to the lower 70s on Saturday and only around 70 degrees for Sunday and Monday. A bit more fall-like. (And perfect timing, since the Autumnal Equinox arrives on Sunday at 8:43 a.m.)

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.