The Bottom Line

I am definitely ready for drier, brighter weather right about now. And I'm sure you are too.

Ophelia's remnants will affect New Jersey's sky and surf for a fourth and final day Tuesday. Weather conditions will be "blah" with raindrops and a stiff breeze and clouds and cool temperatures. But nothing really dramatic

There is only one alarm bell to ring Tuesday, and that is a resurgence of coastal flooding. Tuesday evening's high tide cycle could rival Saturday's, which was pretty precarious. Widespread minor to localized moderate category flooding is expected along tidal waterways.

I'm happy to say we'll dry out from Wednesday through early Thursday, although temperatures will remain pretty October-ish. Rain returns to the picture from late Thursday through Friday. But the weekend outlook still looks fantastic.

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I want to highlight Tuesday's temperature forecast first. Because thermometers are going nowhere all day. We're hovering around 60 degrees to start the day. And we'll see about 60 in the afternoon today. This is primed to be New Jersey's coolest day since May.

Meanwhile, we will see waves of drizzle dampen the state Tuesday, with an occasional outright shower too. Nothing heavy — additional rainfall will probably stay below a tenth of an inch. (Of course, that is after upwards of six inches of total rainfall since the weekend.)

It will be breezy and cloudy. Just plain "blah" again.

Meanwhile, along the Jersey Shore, the coastal flooding threat will heighten again Tuesday. Tide levels are expected to grow again to about 1 to 2 feet higher than usual. That is enough for widespread minor to localized moderate category flooding. Water levels could be as high (or even a few inches higher) as on Saturday.

High tide will happen around 4 p.m. along the Atlantic Ocean and the 8 p.m. hour for back bays.

Atlantic and Cape May counties fall under a Coastal Flood Warning — those tidal waterways are the most likely to threaten moderate flood stage. All other coastal waterways in the state fall under a Coastal Flood Advisory.

The big drying trend will really kick in Tuesday night. We'll still have substantial cloud cover. Low temperatures will dip into the lower 50s on average.


Finally, a dry weather day! I am willing to call Wednesday pleasant, although not perfect.

There may be a few lingering raindrops around sunrise Wednesday, then the rest of the day looks completely dry.

Sunshine should build across northern and western New Jersey on Wednesday, while clouds linger to the south and east.

Despite the brighter weather, temperatures on Wednesday will still be 10+ degrees below seasonal normal. We'll see highs only reach the lower to mid 60s. Pretty October-ish.


Thursday will start off fine. But then, along comes our next period of stormy weather.

Clouds will thicken up through Thursday morning. High temperatures will still only reach the mid 60s by the afternoon, due to those clouds and a continuing on-shore (northeasterly) breeze.

A weak disturbance will creep into our atmosphere, leading to the development of some rain showers Thursday afternoon and evening. Especially along the eastern edge of the state. The spread and intensity of rain will continue to grow into Thursday night.


Back to "blah" weather. But at least it's not tropical. And only lasts one day this time around.

Under cloudy skies, we will see periods of rain on Friday, which could be heavy at times. I don't think forecast models have a good handle on the geography or rainfall totals yet. Over an inch of rain is possible — right now, that looks to be for northern NJ mainly, but that is subject to change.

I do not think Friday is a total washout. But it will be another damp and dreary, breezy, cloudy day overall.

The Weekend & Beyond

Here is the best news of all: The weekend looks fantastic. (And dare I say we deserve a great weekend after last weekend's washout.)

Early clouds on Saturday should give way to brilliant sunshine soon enough. That's enough to allow high temperatures to shoot into the seasonable lower 70s.

Mostly sunny skies on sunshine and a subtle wind shift will push temps even highs, into the upper 70s. A very pleasant way to kick off October.

Guidance now shows Monday will make a run for 80s, away from the coast. Nice and warm.

So within the span of just a few days, we transition from 10 degrees below normal to 10 degrees above. Honestly, that is pretty typical of autumn in New Jersey — big temperature swings and a variety of weather.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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