The Bottom Line

Our latest cold front is through. That means heat and humidity are retreating again, with no 90s in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

We can play the "Weather in a Word" game on the 5 Day Forecast. Tuesday: Refreshing. Wednesday: Beautiful. Thursday: Blah. Friday: Unsettled. The weekend: Better.

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As we start the new day, you will feel an occasional breeze rustling the trees. That is our new air mass, now arriving from the northwest. It is drier and about 10 degrees cooler than the old one.

The reduction in humidity and cloud cover is a slow process. So it's still a relatively warm morning, with temperatures averaging 70 degrees statewide.

This afternoon, the breeze will subside and clouds will thin. Let's call it partly sunny. High temperatures will reach about 80 degrees.

By Tuesday night, we will be fully surrounded by dry air. Under mainly clear skies, temperatures across inland New Jersey should dip into the 50s. More like 60s for cities and coast. Comfortably cool, and wonderfully crisp.


From start to finish, Wednesday will probably be New Jersey's nicest day of the week. Low humidity is the shining star. And with high pressure directly overhead, our weather will stay completely dry.

Most of Wednesday will feature mostly sunny skies, although I could see some clouds build late-day.

High temperatures will once again reach about 80 degrees. Below normal for late August, but only slightly.


As we enter the "late week" time period, a series of impulses will drive in several rounds of rain. At this point, there are two puzzle pieces missing from the forecast: 1.) How heavy might that rain be, and 2.) Will showers linger into Saturday?

Thursday is not going to be a pretty day, but it will not be a total washout. I think we'll see one or two rounds of rain. The NAM model is pumping out some heavy stuff — on the order of an inch or two of rainfall — but I'm not sure the air will have enough moisture to sustain such downpours.

In addition to the raindrops, mostly cloudy to overcast skies are expected throughout Thursday. And that combination will keep temperatures down, with highs only in the mid 70s or so.


Even though Friday will also be unsettled with rain chances, I think it will have a very different "feel" than Thursday.

First of all, there will be breaks of sun Friday, cooking and warming the atmosphere. High temperatures will push into the mid 80s, as humidity ramps up too.

That means our "one or two rounds of rain" could take the form of thunderstorms on Friday. I don't think the air will be especially dynamic and "juicy" for a severe weather outbreak necessarily. But rumbles of thunder and localized downpours seem more likely on Friday than Thursday, by my view.

The Weekend & Beyond

Saturday's forecast is still a toss-up. But I think I'm a little better than a 50/50 coin flip now, leaning in a drier direction.

One model — the Euro — favors another batch of showers arriving midday Saturday. The GFS favors an isolated popup around that time, but that's it.

I am optimistic Saturday will be an OK weather day overall. I will optimistically call it partly sunny, with highs in the lower 80s. Amid falling humidity. (And we will further pinpoint any rain chances in the coming days.

Sunday and Monday look like real winners, with the return of bright skies, low humidity, and highs barely at 80 degrees.

We are still carefully monitoring the tropics too, which have been on fire. The only storm at this time worth watching for NJ impacts is Franklin, set to make landfall along the Dominican Republic's southern shore on Wednesday. As it enters the open Atlantic, Franklin may come close enough to spit some rough surf and swell toward the Jersey Shore next week. Having said that, latest model guidance keeps any weather impacts far away.

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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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