3 reasons why this weekend’s coastal storm is slightly concerning for NJ

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For the latest winter storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

This weekend's coastal storm continues to track off-shore. That means snow accumulations will be minimal at best, with maybe an inch or two along the immediate coast only. That will come alongside 40 mph wind gusts and a couple rounds of minor category coastal flooding.

Friday could turn out to be the coldest day of this entire stretch. Statewide, by the numbers, it looks like our coldest day in over three years (since Christmas Eve 2022). Highs will only reach the upper teens. Wind chills will be stuck in the single digits, at best, all day. We will see 20s this weekend, moderating to the 30s next week — hooray! Still below normal for this time of year. But at least parts of New Jersey will finally pop above the freezing mark for a day or two.

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Before the Storm: Cold

We have reached the bottom of the barrel. Friday's chill will be absolutely absurd. But then things will start turning around and getting slightly better through the weekend and next week.

Friday morning temperatures are in the single digits. Highs will only reach the upper teens, making it one of the coldest days of this stretch. It will be sunny, dry, and breezy throughout Friday. Because of that chilly breeze, the wind chill will be stuck in the teens.

Friday night, temperatures are forecast to plunge to near zero. Although winds should be rather calm, any little breeze will put the wind chill at or below -10 degrees.

Saturday will bring increasing clouds and highs only around 20 degrees. New Jersey's weather should remain trouble-free during the daytime hours.

Coastal Storm Concern #1: Minimal Snow

We have been carefully watching this weekend's powerful and tricky coastal storm — a nor'easter — for quite some time now. And forecast models now show a strong consensus toward a close fly-by track. As the storm just barely skirts by the Jersey Shore, it may or may not throw some snow showers our way between Saturday evening and Sunday morning.

And yes, that light snow may or may not accumulate a little bit.

We are not expecting any sort of significant wintry weather here in New Jersey this weekend. No blizzard. No snow bomb.

I decided to keep an inch or two in the forecast for Saturday night to Sunday morning along the immediate coast, just in case the storm makes a last-minute wiggle toward the coast. That is my only snow "concern" going forward. The chance is very low that inland areas see substantial accumulation.

Coastal Storm Concern #2: Wind

I think the storm's biggest weather impact on New Jersey will be a strong north wind that kicks up on Sunday. Top gusts are forecast to reach 30 to 40 mph.

Sporadic power outages are possible.

Furthermore, you may have noticed that it's very cold outside. Add the wind, and it's going to be incredibly blustery throughout Sunday. While high temperatures will reach the mid 20s, the wind chill will be 10 degrees or below. Not a nice day at all, especially with limited sunshine.

Coastal Storm Concern #3: Tidal Flooding

With a strong low pressure off the coast and strong wind in play, coastal flooding becomes a concern. (The impending Full Moon plays into this as well.) Storm surge estimates have come down slightly over the last day. But at least we are getting a clearer picture now of what to expect.

I think three high tide cycles in a row — Sunday AM, Sunday PM, and Monday AM — will see 2 to 3 feet of storm surge (extra water rise), and solid minor category flooding of tidal waterways along the Jersey Shore. That translates to "the usual spots" that flood every time there is a big storm, with barrier islands generally being the most vulnerable.

Road closures may be needed before, during, and after times of high tide. Never attempt to drive, swim, or walk through flooded areas. Turn Around, Don't Drown.

After the Storm: Not Quite as Cold

There is some good news after the non-blizzard passes by: Temperatures will moderate next week, and parts of New Jersey might pop above freezing for a day or two. 30s are still pretty cold, but at least it is 15+ degrees warmer than Friday.

Monday, Tuesday, and most of Wednesday look quiet and relatively pleasant. Long-range models are showing storm system signals in the second half of next week. For now, circle Wednesday-Thursday and Friday-Saturday on your calendar. We will not dig into details until the weekend storm passes by though — one storm at a time, please.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.