The Bottom Line
You will chew through some humidity in New Jersey's air on Monday, a signal that unsettled, occasionally wet, and possibly stormy weather is on the way. Everyone in the state will probably get wet at some point. There could be some embedded thunderstorms and localized downpours around, but nothing too dramatic.
We'll see improvements to our weather on Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Even though there aren't any brilliantly sunny, delightfully dry air days in the forecast, seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather will still be pleasant.
Humid and unsettled. An area of low pressure spinning over the Great Lakes will spit approximately two waves of rain toward the Garden State.
The first round of wet weather is on-going as of this writing. Light to moderate rain has impacted mainly northern New Jersey early on this Monday morning. There have been some isolated showers and sprinkles farther south.
Initial raindrops will taper by mid-morning, and we'll be left with mostly cloudy to overcast skies through midday. It will be humid and warm. Morning temps in the upper 60s are 15 to 20 degrees above normal for early October. And afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s to around 80. North Jersey will be a bit cooler, closer to 70.
You will probably need the umbrella and windshield wipers at some point from Monday early afternoon through late evening. Pockets of rain are expected to develop. For the most part, we're just talking about occasional rain and nothing too dramatic. Having said that, embedded thunderstorms (rumbles of thunder) and localized downpours are possible.
Average rainfall will be no more than a quarter-inch. Where it really pours, however, over an inch of rainfall is a possibility.
The chance of scattered rain will continue Monday night. Fog is possible too, especially where pouring rain soaked the ground. Low temperatures will dip into the lower 60s.
There will be improvements. A backdoor cold front will cure the humidity issue, as dew points descend from the 60s to the more comfortable 50s.
I do have to include the chance of an isolated shower either Tuesday morning or afternoon. (This is probably a case where you can skip the umbrella.)
There will still be lots of clouds overhead throughout Tuesday too.
High temperatures will come down to the lower 70s. Much more typical of early October.
Looking good. Although some forecast models paint an isolated shower over New Jersey, I favor a return to high pressure and fair weather. Under partly sunny skies, high temps will once again reach the seasonable lower 70s.
Thursday & Beyond
Thursday should be pleasant too, with a mix of sun and clouds, relatively dry air, dry weather, and highs in the mid 70s.
Things will get somewhat more complicated as the Columbus Day Weekend approaches. Clouds will likely win the sky on Friday, although we should stay dry again. Highs hold steady in the mid 70s.
Long-range models do show an easterly wind for the weekend. That is an on-shore wind, driving humidity, clouds, and raindrops back into New Jersey's forecast. At the moment, a storm system looks to drive in the steadiest rain on Sunday, but that's a "coin flip" forecast at this resolution.
We'll better pinpoint what to expect as the weekend gets closer - especially important given all the holiday weekend and outdoor autumn activities planned for next weekend.
In the tropics, Hurricane Sam is churning up the northern Atlantic while Tropical Depression Victor will likely dissipate soon. No immediate concerns for the U.S. East Coast.