Hurricane Prediction for 2014

Here is some very good news.  The forecast for the 2014 hurricane season is for a relatively "quiet" season.

You and I know that in life there are no guarantees.

The predictions for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season is for eleven storms.  This includes  five hurricanes, two of which are expected to be major hurricanes.

That's the word from meteorologist Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University.  Dr. Gray's annual forecast is usually fairly accurate.

During a typical year, there are twelve named storms.  Seven of those develop into hurricanes.

We have one big factor working in our favor for this season.

We're expected to have a  moderate El Nino.  That translates to cooler than normal water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Warm ocean water acts as fuel for hurricanes.

I have to emphasize, that forecasting for a hurricane season is a very inexact science.  Case in point.  In 2013 there was no El Nino.  But for the first time since 1994 there were no hurricanes that developed that were stronger than a category two.

There is one more caveat.  The experts can't predict this far in advance the path of a 2014 hurricane.  We know by experience that a storm could hit anywhere along the gulf coast, up the eastern seaboard, or best case, head out to sea.

The official hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

We may have a better idea on what to expect when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) releases its prediction in May.

Yes, we have paid dearly.  After a year and a half the remnants of Sandy still dot our beautiful shore and most of all still have the lives of many Garden State residents turned upside down.

Lets hope Mother Nature remembers and gives us another "Mulligan" for 2014.