Here we go again: Weekend winter storm another snowy, icy mess for NJ

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For the latest storm forecast information, please refer to my newest weather blog post.

The Bottom Line

We get to catch our collective breath with a relatively quiet weather day Friday. But the rest of this forecast is insane, with a parade of 4 or 5 storm systems set to impact New Jersey over the next 10 days. There will be some snow, some ice, and some plain rain. And lots of travel difficulties along the way.

Our next winter storm this weekend is almost a repeat of the Wednesday-Thursday storm, in terms of featuring a mixed bag of wintry precipitation: Snow, ice, and rain. However, the timing is different, as the brunt of the storm happens in the late evening hours rather than a morning commute period. And the weekend storm will have a little more "oomph," resulting in a higher snow and ice accumulation forecast.

After we clear out Sunday morning, we will start focusing on the next storm on Tuesday. And then another one next Thursday-Friday. And then another one over the President's Day weekend. It has been a while since we have experienced such a hyper-active, wintry forecast. We'll just have to take it one storm at a time.

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Friday: Fairly Quiet

Friday will not be a perfect weather day. But at least nothing will be falling from the sky. (Aside from some surprise early morning rain showers that clipped South Jersey.)

Look for sunshine with passing clouds through both Friday morning and afternoon. It is going to turn breezy and blustery, with northwesterly gusts occasionally passing 20 mph.

It is a cold front day, so temperatures are about to tumble again. Temperatures will hold around 40 degrees throughout the morning. (That is the "high" for the day.) And then thermometers will slide downward through the 30s in the afternoon.

Friday night will be pretty cold, with increasing clouds after about Midnight. Low temperatures will dip into the lower to mid 20s. I could see some teens among the hilltops of northwestern NJ.

Saturday: Another Wintry, Wet Mess

This weekend's winter storm is going to be another complicated mess. But I actually feel pretty confident about the impacts — just like the last one, the potential for icing may supercede the snow potential.

Saturday will start quiet, cloudy and cold. High temperatures will only reach the mid 30s.

While a snow shower is possible through the midday hours, our approaching storm system should not start really ramping up in New Jersey until the mid to late afternoon hours.

The storm will likely start as light to moderate snow for everyone, which will become more widespread and heavier through the evening hours. That will be the brunt of the storm — between about 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Saturday evening.

In addition, we will have a nose of warm air pushing up from the south, forcing a transition to icy mix (sleet and freezing rain) and/or plain rain for most of the Garden State. Again, the icing might be the biggest concern here.

In terms of accumulations and related impacts, North Jersey should see snow for the majority of the storm. Maybe some mixing after Midnight Saturday night. I expect 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation north of Interstate 78. (I am tempted to go higher, but the mixing factor and wet snow-to-water ratio has me leaning conservative.) Also, a light glaze of ice is possible on top of that snow cover due to sleet and freezing rain.

For the middle and southwestern corridors of the state, you will see the full gamut of wintry precipitation. From snow to icy mix to a bit of rain. (And maybe one final burst of snow at the tail-end Sunday morning.) Icing is the big concern here. While about 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is possible, about a quarter-inch of ice is looking likely. That would lead to some very treacherous road conditions overnight. And heavy ice could lead to some power outages as well.

For southern and coastal New Jersey, a quick flip from snow and icy mix to plain rain is expected. There may be a brief period of slipperiness, before things turn "just wet". I will say a coating of snow and/or a light glaze of ice are possible. Rainfall totals may exceed a half-inch.

If you don't have somewhere you have to be Saturday night, the storm will be a good excuse to just hunker down at home and stay nice and safe and warm.

Sunday: Clearing Out

Wintry mix and rain will wrap up early Sunday morning, probably around daybreak. (Sunrise these days is around 7 a.m. by the way.) A brief flip back to all snow is possible as temperatures cool again on the backside of the storm.

The rest of Sunday will be OK. Morning clouds will give way to sunshine by midday. It will be breezy. And seasonable, with high temperatures reaching about 40 degrees. Areas that have fresh snow on the ground would be the coldest parts of the state.

Monday: Cold But Quiet

Another quiet weather day, although clouds and colder-than-normal temperatures are not ideal.

Expect mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid 30s Monday.

A batch of showers will come close to South Jersey on Monday. But all forecast models currently show this to be a "miss".

The Extended Forecast: A Parade of Storms

Here we go again ... again! Another storm system comes into view on Tuesday. And this one looks like a snowmaker for New Jersey — however, accumulations and impacts are highly volatile at this point due to an uncertain storm track.

I think Tuesday's storm will be a late-day event. Let's say wintry impacts would be between about 1 p.m. Tuesday afternoon and 3 a.m. Wednesday morning. So both Tuesday evening's and Wednesday morning's commute could be impacted by wintry conditions.

On the cold side of the main storm system, this would be a snow storm for most. The risk of icing would be minimal. The immediate coast might be more rainy than snowy.

The question is "How much snow?" About 12 hours ago, I was ready to promote a forecast of "a half-foot to a foot" for part of New Jersey. But now, a southern shift would limit top snowfall totals to just "a few inches". Once this weekend's storm wraps up, we should have a much clearer view of how Tuesday will shape up. So I will have much more to say, including details and potential totals, on Sunday.

After that, a few more storms are possible through the President's Day Weekend. And then hopefully, our atmosphere simmers down.

What to Expect

With lots of wintry weather in the forecast, our entire team is on standby to keep you informed and help you stay safe.

My next weather blog and detailed forecast is expected to be ready Saturday morning. And then I'll have regular online and on-air updates through the weekend storm. After that wraps up — and not until then — we will start focusing on the next storm system coming up on Tuesday.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.