Flipping from summer to fall this weekend: Cooling trend for NJ

The Bottom Line

The countdown to fall is on. The Autumnal Equinox officially arrives this Sunday at 8:43 a.m. And the weather is going to follow the calendar for once.

Thursday was very warm, with temperatures as high as 87 degrees in the afternoon. Friday will be about five degrees cooler. Saturday will turn about five degrees cooler than that. Sunday will be five degrees cooler than Saturday. This slow cooling, drying trend will be noticeable, as the air feels much more "fall-like" by early next week.

Meanwhile, we are still in a perennial state of crying "we need rain!" About half of New Jersey is now classified as abnormally dry. And that figure will continue to rise if we don't see a significant soaking soon. There are a couple showers in the short-range forecast, but they will not be nearly enough. Unsettled, rainy weather does show up for the second half of next week — fingers crossed it actually happens.

While the sky will be quite pleasant through the weekend, the sea is still angry.

With a coastal storm driving on-shore winds toward New Jersey all week — and with no end in sight — the surf is rough. A high risk of rip currents will continue into this weekend. And tidal flooding is expected for the next several high tide cycles.

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Friday

Overall, looking good.

That pesky coastal storm system is still spinning off-shore. That has an influence on our wind direction and surf condition. And it could spit just enough energy and moisture toward NJ to produce a shower or sprinkle at some point. Please don't let this slight chance rain interfere with your plans at all — if something develops, it would be light, brief, and isolated.

The rest of the day will progress from mostly to partly sunny skies. High temperatures will shoot for about 80 degrees. Definitely warm — although notably not quite as hot as Thursday. Humidity levels are still moderate, so you may notice a hint of stickiness in the air.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Jersey Shore, as we face minor to moderate flooding of tidal waterways — that goes a bit beyond "the usual spots" that see big puddles every time there's a bit of surge or swell. Coastal flooding will likely be a problem for the next 6 to 8 high tide cycles, right through early next week. (By the way, we call this "sunny day flooding," because water inundation issues are happening during relatively fair weather.)

A high risk of rip currents is posted for the Jersey Shore too.

Friday night will stay quiet, with a few clouds overhead. Low temperatures will dip to around 60 degrees.

Saturday

Diving into the weekend, there is nothing to complain about in Saturday's forecast. Skies will be partly sunny and bright. The daytime hours stay completely dry. A light breeze will blow out of the northeast. (That will be a prominent ocean breeze at Jersey Shore beaches.)

High temperatures will reach the mid 70s. That is very close to the long-term average for mid to late September. (Normal highs are 76 to 77 degrees right now.)

Sunday

Forecast models paint a decent chance of a shower Sunday morning, as a piece of shortwave energy tries to ride in from the west. It is largely going to fizzle out in our dry atmosphere. So the western edge of New Jersey could see up to a quarter-inch of rain. But conditions will end up drier (or completely dry) near the coast.

The rest of Sunday will be mostly cloudy, but still fairly pleasant. The cooldown will continue, as highs only reach the lower 70s or so.

Monday

Early next week will be the bottom of this temperature barrel, with 50s in the morning and barely 70 degrees in the afternoon.

Given limited sunshine on Monday, it may feel pretty cool throughout the day. Not necessarily "jacket all day" weather. But a big departure from the rest of September, which has been very warm and summerlike.

The Extended Forecast

Beyond Monday, the forecast gets muddled as model guidance brings rain back into view for New Jersey. There are vastly different scenarios on the table for the middle to late part of next week — and most of them include some healthy, multi-inch rainfall.

I do not want to hazard a guess just yet about which days from Tuesday through Saturday will be wetter than others, whether we will see any total washouts, or whether there will be any flooding issues. I got burned by the last storm system, so we are going to play this one out very carefully and deliberately. We'll talk about a more specific timeline and potential rainfall totals late this weekend into early next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.