To start, I have to talk about Tuesday. It was a pretty spectacular weather day. And pretty unusual too, with a very wide range of temperatures across our little state. According to the NJ Weather and Climate Network at Rutgers, the cool spot in the state was Harvey Cedars, on Long Beach Island, at only 60 degrees. Meanwhile, Sandyston, in Sussex County, reached 89 degrees. Wow!

For Wednesday, we're going to scale back the sunshine and temperatures a bit. But it still have the potential of being a nice, dry day.

We're starting off Wednesday morning sounding the foghorns again. For the second morning in a row, visibility is at or below a quarter-mile in several spots. A Dense Fog Advisory is posted until 10 a.m. for central and southern New Jersey. However, from my chair, the fog looks thinner and less widespread than on Tuesday. And I believe it will go away quicker, largely burning off by around 8 a.m.

The rest of Wednesday looks partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the mid 70s. However, a little extra pop of sunshine Wednesday afternoon could absolutely push thermometers to 80+. On the other hand, the cool spot once again will be the Jersey Shore, stuck in the 60s again, under the influence of a light on-shore breeze.

One thing we're watching is a piece of tropical moisture that will drive heavy rain into North Carolina and South Carolina today. (On the order of 4 to 6 inches of total rainfall.) That system will actually track west of New Jersey in the coming days — close enough to drive clouds and probably some rain our way.

GFS model forecast for Wednesday, showing a piece of tropical moisture soaking the Carolinas. (College of DuPage Meteorology)
GFS model forecast for Wednesday, showing a piece of tropical moisture soaking the Carolinas. (College of DuPage Meteorology)

Wednesday evening looks good, although I do have to add the chance of a rain shower to the forecast after about 10 p.m. We'll probably see fog develop again overnight, especially along the Jersey Shore. Low temperatures will only fall into the lower 60s — typical for summertime, but 5 to 7 degrees above normal in late May.

On Thursday, the aforementioned tropical system will fly by, presenting a chance for showers. Best chance for raindrops will be along the western edge of the state (along the Delaware River). And, because this system will still have a direct link to some rich tropical moisture, localized downpours are probable. Translation: Not everybody will get wet Thursday, but if you do you're likely to get very wet.

The steamiest day of the week will be Friday, as high temps surge to the lower 80s (away from the coast). Even thermometers along the Jersey Shore will push into the 70s, as our wind becomes more southerly (rather than southeasterly). Dew points will come awfully close to 70 degrees too — yuck!

In that hot and humid atmosphere, a pre-frontal trough will probably spark a few showers and thunderstorms starting Friday afternoon. I believe forecast guidance is doing a poor job at modeling the spread and intensity of these potential storms right now — our atmosphere looks quite juicy to me.

The chance for rain will continue into Saturday morning, as a cold front approaches and passes through New Jersey. Immediately after, rain will end, skies will start to clear, and humidity will start to drop. (At the moment, I would place that transition at Saturday midday, but that's subject to wiggle a bit.) High temperatures on Saturday will still come close to 80 degrees — if we can get rid of the rain early enough, it could turn into a gorgeous day.

Sunday will be the cooler day of the weekend, with highs limited to the lower 70s. I'd call it refreshing though, with a northerly breeze, dry weather, dry air, and abundant sunshine. Such slightly-below-normal, mainly-dry weather will continue through the first half of next week.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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