With Bundesliga resuming this Saturday and Bayern Munich on top, which team will win the title?

For a long time this season, it looked like the long reign of Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga was going to end.

Die Roten started this seven-year run at the top of the German top flight in style. They had lost out on every title in the 2011-2012 season, losing the league and cup to Borussia Dortmund, then lost the UEFA Champions League final on penalties to Chelsea, in their own stadium (Allianz Arena) no less.

But that disappointment set off a spectacular 2012-13 campaign, when Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga back from Dortmund in record fashion (91 points), then it beat Dortmund 2-1 in the Champions League final in the final minutes of the match, before completing the treble.

Fast forward seven years, and this finally looked like the season Borussia Dortmund would break the hex. Bayern Munich got off to an awful start to its campaign, and the shoe dropped on November 3, 2019, after a 5-1 loss to Eintracht Frankfurt left Bayern Munich 10 points behind Dortmund. Niko Kovač was sacked and replaced by Hansi Flick, who eventually righted the ship.

Now, here we sit, with the Bundesliga set to return Saturday after a two month hiatus due to the COVID-19 virus, and Bayern Munich heads into the final nine matches with a four-point lead over Borussia Dortmund, a five-point lead over third place RB Leipzig, and a six-point advantage over fourth place Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Despite the tight crunch at the top, Bayern Munich is a massive favorite (-500) with bet365 NJ to bring home the title. Borussia Dortmund is +550, while RB Leipzig is +900; there is no confidence that Borussia Mönchengladbach (+10000) can claw back into the race.

Looking at this over the final nine matches of the campaign, RB Leipzig has a favorable run in, with its toughest match coming on the second to last weekend at home to Borussia Dortmund. That match will be massive, but the biggest match left looks to be on Memorial Day Monday (or Tuesday), as Dortmund hosts Bayern Munich at Signal Iduna Park. A win by Dortmund that day will blow open this title race, and see its odds to win drop dramatically.

So while Bayern Munich might be the best team in the world right now, is it worth it to back Borussia Dortmund at +550 before the season resumes, and maybe throw a little on RB Leipzig as well at +900?

Probably.

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If you think the team on top of the table will hold on over the last nine match weeks, Arminia Bielefeld offers much more value in the Bundesliga 2. Die Blauen has a six-point lead over VfB Stuttgart, and a seven-point advantage over third place Hamburg, at the top of the table.

Arminia Bielefeld has lost just twice this season (14-9-2), and has allowed the least amount of goals (26) and scored the most (50) in the league. Even with all of those stats pointing heavily towards the club to hold on and win the title, you can get Bielefeld at -163 to win the title with William Hill NJ Sportsbook, much better odds than Bayern Munich has to win the Bundesliga. VfB Stuttgart is currently +275, while Hamburg is +450.

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