Temperature roller coaster ahead for NJ: Mild, cool, warm, cool
The Bottom Line
As Hurricane Milton prepares for a late Wednesday night landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast, it is still astounding to me that New Jersey will escape scot-free from this historic storm.
Our forecast still looks mighty dry. A sprinkle may clip North Jersey early Wednesday morning. A few showers may develop on Sunday. And then our next opportunity for widespread rain will not come until late next week.
Meanwhile, temperatures will be quite variable over the next week. This is totally typical of fall in New Jersey. We will progress from mild on Wednesday, to much cooler Thursday into Friday, to much warmer this weekend, to even colder next week.
Wednesday
Wednesday's weather will look very similar to Tuesday's, during the daytime hours at least.
We are starting off with temperatures mainly in the 40s. (For the record, I grabbed my jacket for the first time this season.)
There is a batch of sprinkles clipping through far northern New Jersey early Wednesday morning too. Someone in Warren or Sussex counties may see a few raindrops on their windshield, but that is it.
For the rest of Wednesday, expect good sunshine with some clouds along the way. High temperatures will reach about 70 degrees. Again, just like Tuesday.
Eventually, a cold front will slide through New Jersey Wednesday night. We will stay completely dry, and skies will remain mainly clear overnight. But a chilly breeze will kick up, blowing out of the northwest over 20 mph. That is an even-colder air mass settling in.
Overnight low temperatures will end up in the 40s. Not quite a frost — but that breeze may bite a bit.
Thursday
Thursday will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Putting thermometers notably below normal for early-mid October.
With high temperatures only around 60 degrees and a continuing chilly breeze, you may want a jacket or sweatshirt all day. It will be mostly sunny and dry — but feeling a bit November-ish.
Friday
Friday morning is the one we are eyeballing for the first frost of the year. Probably just for the coldest corners of the state — northwestern New Jersey and the Pine Barrens. Other rural and suburban areas of inland New Jersey will be close to the 30s. No frost advisories have been issued just yet.
The rest of Friday will be just fine. It will be another bright and sunny day. And high temperatures should improve to the mid 60s by the afternoon. Not too shabby.
The Weekend
A wind shift will drive warmer air back into New Jersey just in time for the weekend.
Saturday looks like a great weather day, with mostly to partly sunny skies and high temperatures pushing into the mid 70s. One potential nuisance: It will turn breezy by the afternoon.
Sunday will still see 70s for most of the state, although areas north of about I-80 may taste cooler air and end up closer to the 50s.
There is also a chance for isolated to spotty showers in the middle of the day Sunday. Given our dry atmosphere, I do not expect much rain here. The best chance of damp weather will be in the northern half of New Jersey. Rainfall totals may exceed a tenth of an inch, if we are lucky.
The Extended Forecast
Next week, thermometers will take another step backward, as we barrel deep into autumn. High temperatures on Monday will scale back to the 60s, and then only around 50 degrees on Tuesday. Patchy morning frost will also enter the conversation again by the middle of next week.
The GFS model is rather bullish about a storm system late next week, around the Thursday time frame, producing steady rain over New Jersey. Uncertainty is very high 8 days out — especially with a major hurricane passing 1,000 miles to our south. Let's see how things develop after that.
To all my Florida friends, be safe. To all my New Jersey friends, have a wonderful Wednesday.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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