
Stock markets plunge in worst week since 2020 as China reacts to Trump tariffs
NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street’s worst crisis since COVID slammed into a higher, scarier gear Friday.
The S&P 500 lost 6% after China matched President Donald Trump’s big raise in tariffs announced earlier this week. The move increased the stakes in a trade war that could end with a recession that hurts everyone. Not even a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market, which is usually the economic highlight of each month, was enough to stop the slide.
Worst week in 5 years
The drop closed the worst week for the S&P 500 since March 2020, when the pandemic crashed the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 2,231 points, or 5.5% Friday, and the Nasdaq composite tumbled 5.8% to pull more than 20% below its record set in December.
So far there have been few, if any, winners in financial markets from the trade war. Stocks for all but 12 of the 500 companies that make up the S&P 500 index fell Friday. The price of crude oil tumbled to its lowest level since 2021. Other basic building blocks for economic growth, such as copper, also saw prices slide on worries the trade war will weaken the global economy.
China’s response to U.S. tariffs caused an immediate acceleration of losses in markets worldwide. The Commerce Ministry in Beijing said it would respond to the 34% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from China with its own 34% tariff on imports of all U.S. products beginning April 10. The United States and China are the world’s two largest economies.
Jobs report
Markets briefly recovered some of their losses after the release of Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report, which said employers accelerated their hiring by more last month than economists expected. It’s the latest signal that the U.S. job market has remained relatively solid through the start of 2025, and it’s been a linchpin keeping the U.S. economy out of a recession.
But that jobs data was backward looking, and the fear hitting financial markets is about what’s to come.
“The world has changed, and the economic conditions have changed,” said Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of global fixed income at BlackRock.
What happens next?
The central question looking ahead is: Will the trade war cause a global recession? If it does, stock prices will likely need to come down even more than they have already. The S&P 500 is down 17.4% from its record set in February.
Trump seemed unfazed. From Mar-a-Lago, his private club in Florida, he headed to his golf course a few miles away after writing on social media that “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO GET RICH.”
The Federal Reserve could cushion the blow of tariffs on the economy by cutting interest rates, which can encourage companies and households to borrow and spend. But the Fed may have less freedom to move than it would like.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Friday that tariffs could also drive up expectations for inflation. That could prove more damaging than high inflation itself, because it can drive a vicious cycle of behavior that only worsens inflation. U.S. households have already said they’re bracing for sharp increases to their bills.
“Our obligation is to keep longer-term inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” Powell said.
That could indicate a hesitance to cut rates because lower rates can give inflation more fuel.
Predicting Trump's next move
Much will depend on how long Trump’s tariffs stick and what kind of retaliations other countries deliver. Some of Wall Street is holding onto hope that Trump will lower the tariffs after prying out some “wins” from other countries following negotiations.
Trump has given mixed signals on that. On Friday, he said an official from Vietnam said his country already “wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S.” Trump also criticized China’s retaliation, saying on his Truth Social platform that “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED - THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!”
Trump has said Americans may feel “some pain” because of tariffs, but he has also said the long-term goals, including getting more manufacturing jobs back to the United States, are worth it. On Thursday, he likened the situation to a medical operation, where the U.S. economy is the patient.
“For investors looking at their portfolios, it could have felt like an operation performed without anesthesia,” said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management.
But Jacobsen also said the next surprise for investors could be how quickly tariffs get negotiated down. “The speed of recovery will depend on how, and how quickly, officials negotiate,” he said.
Closer look at the numbers
On Wall Street, stocks of companies that do lots of business in China fell to some of the sharpest losses.
DuPont dropped 12.7% after China said its regulators are launching an anti-trust investigation into DuPont China group, a subsidiary of the chemical giant. It’s one of several measures targeting American companies and in retaliation for the U.S. tariffs.
GE Healthcare got 12% of its revenue last year from the China region, and it fell 16%.
All told, the S&P 500 fell 322.44 points to 5,074.08. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,231.07 to 38,314.86, and the Nasdaq composite fell 962.82 to 15,587.79.
In stock markets abroad, Germany’s DAX lost 5%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 4.3% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.8%.
In the bond market, Treasury yields fell, but they pared their drops following Powell’s cautious statements about inflation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.01% from 4.06% late Thursday and from roughly 4.80% early this year. It had gone below 3.90% in the morning.
Answering your questions about the Trump tariffs
What is Trump trying to accomplish with his tariffs?
It is often unclear what the president’s endgame is, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding his trade wars. He has given different reasons for his sweeping import taxes, and sometimes they contradict each other.
Trump has said that tariffs can raise money for the U.S. Treasury, protect U.S. industries, draw factories to the United States and serve as a negotiating tactic to get other countries to bend to his will, whether it means getting them to reduce their own tariffs or to crack down on the illegal flow of drugs and immigrants into the United States.
But if tariffs mean Americans buy fewer imports or if companies relocate factories to the United States, then revenue from tariffs will fall, undercutting his plan to use them as a money generating alternative to the income tax.
Trump and his own aides have also offered competing explanations for the sweeping “reciprocal’’ tariffs he announced Wednesday.
The president on Thursday said the levies “give us great power to negotiate’’ and were coaxing other countries into offering to lower their own trade barriers. “Every country is calling us,” Trump said. “That’s the beauty of what we do. We put ourselves in the driver’s seat.’’
The same day, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC that the tariffs were meant to stay: The idea is to get companies to produce goods in America, not abroad, bringing down longstanding U.S. trade deficits. “Let me make this very clear,” he said. “This is not a negotiation. This is not that. This is a national emergency.’’
What is currency manipulation?
Currency manipulation takes place when a country deliberately pushes the value of its currency lower, which makes its companies’ exports cheaper in foreign markets and gives them an unfair competitive advantage. It can do this buy selling its own currency and buying another country’s – usually the U.S. dollar – in foreign exchange markets.
In announcing sweeping tariffs this year, Trump has accused other countries of using this tactic to gain an unfair edge over American companies. China, in particular, was notorious for years for manipulating its currency lower to boost exports. But last November the Biden administration’s Treasury Department concluded that “no major U.S. trading partner’’ had manipulated its currency to gain an unfair advantage in the fiscal year that ended in June 2024.
The U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s “reserve currency’’ – used far more than others in global commerce – tends to keep its value high, which can put U.S. exporters at a disadvantage.
Do US-collected tariffs go into the General Revenue Fund?
Can Trump withdraw money from that fund without oversight?
Tariffs are taxes on imports, collected when foreign goods cross the U.S. border by the Customs and Border Protection agency. The money — about $80 billion last year — goes to the U.S. Treasury to help pay the federal government’s expenses. Congress has authority to say how the money will be spent.
Trump — largely supported by Republican lawmakers who control the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives — wants to use increased tariff revenue to finance tax cuts that analysts say would disproportionately benefit the wealthy. Specifically, they want to extend tax cuts passed in Trump's first term and largely set to expire at the end of 2025. The Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, has found that extending Trump’s tax cuts would reduce federal revenue by $4.5 trillion from 2025 to 2034.
Trump wants higher tariffs to help offset the lower tax collections. Another think tank, the Tax Policy Center, has said that extending the 2017 tax cuts would deliver continued tax relief to Americans at all income levels, “but higher-income households would receive a larger benefit.’’
How soon will prices rise as a result of the tariff policy?
It depends on how businesses both in the United States and overseas respond, but consumers could see overall prices rising within a month or two of tariffs being imposed. For some products, such as produce from Mexico, prices could rise much more quickly after the tariffs take effect.
Some U.S. retailers and other importers may eat part of the cost of the tariff, and overseas exporters may reduce their prices to offset the extra duties. But for many businesses, the tariffs Trump announced Wednesday — such as 20% on imports from Europe — will be too large to swallow on their own.
Companies may also use the tariffs as an excuse to raise prices. When Trump slapped duties on washing machines in 2018, studies later showed that retailers raised prices on both washers and dryers, even though there were no new duties on dryers.
A key question in the coming months is whether something similar will happen again. Economists worry that consumers, having just lived through the biggest inflationary spike in four decades, are more accustomed to rising prices than they were before the pandemic.
Yet there are also signs that Americans, put off by the rise in the cost of living, are less willing to accept price increases and will simply cut back on their purchases. That could discourage businesses from raising prices by much.
What is the limit of the executive branch’s power to implement tariffs? Does Congress not play any role?
The U.S. Constitution grants the power to set tariffs to Congress. But over the years, Congress has delegated those powers to the president through several different laws. Those laws specify the circumstances under which the White House can impose tariffs, which are typically limited to cases where imports threaten national security or are severely harming a specific industry.
In the past, presidents generally imposed tariffs only after carrying out public hearings to determine if certain imports met those criteria. Trump followed those steps when imposing tariffs in his first term.
In his second term, however, Trump has sought to use emergency powers set out in a 1977 law to impose tariffs in a more ad hoc fashion. Trump has said, for example, that fentanyl flowing in from Canada and Mexico constitute a national emergency and has used that pretext to impose 25% duties on goods from both countries.
Congress can seek to cancel an emergency that a president declares, and Sen. Tim Kaine, a Democrat from Virginia, has proposed to do just that regarding Canada. That legislation could pass the Senate but would likely die in the House. Other bills in Congress that would also limit the president's authority to set tariffs face tough odds for passage as well.
What tariffs are other countries charging on U.S. goods?
U.S. tariffs are generally lower than those charged by other countries. The average U.S. tariff, weighted to reflect goods that are actually traded, is just 2.2% for the United States, versus the European Union’s 2.7%, China’s 3% and India’s 12%, according to the World Trade Organization.
Other countries also tend to do more than the United States to protect their farmers with high tariffs. The U.S. trade-weighted tariff on farm goods, for example, is 4%, compared to the EU’s 8.4%, Japan’s 12.6%, China’s 13.1% and India’s 65%. (The WTO numbers don’t count Trump’s recent flurry of import taxes or tariffs between countries that have entered into their own free trade agreements, such as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement that allows many goods to cross North American borders duty-free.)
Yet the Trump administration has used its own calculations to come up with far greater tariffs that they say other economies impose on the U.S. For example, the White House said Wednesday that the European Union's effective tariffs on the U.S. equal 39%, far higher than the WTO's numbers. It says China's equal 67%.
Previous U.S. administrations agreed to the tariffs that Trump now calls unjust. They were the result of a long negotiation between 1986 to 1994 — the so-called Uruguay Round — that ended in a trade pact signed by 123 countries and has formed the basis of the global trading system for nearly four decades.
— THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
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