Rainy most of Monday, more unsettled weather for NJ later this week

The Bottom Line

After a mixed bag of weather over the first weekend of Spring, we are headed back to work and school Monday with rain in the forecast. As a warm front travels through New Jersey, it is producing just enough lift for pockets of light to moderate rain. And that is it — there is nothing heavy, severe, or wintry in this forecast.

Once rain exits the Garden State, clearer skies will not last long with another brief batch of showers coming midweek. And then more isolated showers are expected toward the end of the week.

When all is said and done, over the next 7 to 10 days, we could pick up a solid 1 to 2 inches of total rainfall across New Jersey. Great news and great drought improvements.

Meanwhile, temperatures will hover at or below seasonal normal temperatures for more upcoming days than not.

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Monday

Rain is the weather story of Monday, although not necessarily all day. And there is no dramatic weather here — just wet stuff.

As of this writing (7:30 a.m.), we have seen scattered showers streaming through the middle of the state. A batch of steadier rain is sitting just southwest of New Jersey.

So it looks like the "brunt" of this storm system — if you can even call it that — will be in the Monday late morning hours. That is when the steadiest and heaviest rain of the day will pass overhead.

Shortly therefore, through Monday afternoon, we should see rain slowly taper off. Drier weather should generally build from west to east. Final raindrops will likely fall in SE NJ around 5 p.m. (give or take). Total rainfall will probably end up between a half-inch and an inch.

Temperatures will climb from about 40 in the morning to the seasonable lower-mid 50s in the afternoon. Skies stay cloudy, with an occasional breeze.

Monday evening, skies should clear quickly. And it will be a cool, quiet overnight. Look for low temperatures again near the 40-degree mark.

Tuesday

Honestly, Tuesday looks like New Jersey's nicest weather day of the week. And possibly the warmest.

Under mostly to partly sunny skies, high temperatures will reach about 55 to 60 degrees. A westerly breeze will be noticeable, possibly hitting 20 mph. The daytime hours will remain completely dry.

However, at least part of New Jersey will get wet again Tuesday night. A batch of showers looks likely between about 8 p.m. Tuesday and 3 a.m. Wednesday. If showers stretch into the highest elevations of NW NJ, there could be some snowflakes mixed — but little to no accumulation is expected.

Wednesday

Wednesday will be a cooldown day. Not an arctic blast, just noticeably chillier.

High temperatures Wednesday will settle in the lower 50s or so. That is just below seasonal normals. We should see intermixed periods of sun and clouds throughout the day. Weather looks dry.

Thursday

Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, on the cool side.

A light freeze is possible Thursday morning. And then highs will get stuck around 50 degrees Thursday afternoon. Sunshine should dominate the sky.

Friday & Beyond

Friday will look and feel a bit more unsettled, as clouds fill in and an isolated shower becomes possible. We can't complain too much about near-normal temperatures though, reaching the mid 50s Friday afternoon.

The forecast gets very murky for the weekend. There are two scenarios in play. The GFS model favors clouds and occasional (hit or miss) showers for both Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures mainly in the 50s. The European model paints a drier, sunnier, warmer picture, with potential 70s in play for southwestern New Jersey at least. The truth is probably in the middle — I do not think either weekend day will be a total washout, but we will better pin down that timeline as it gets a little closer.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.