As September ends, so does NJ’s stretch of warm weather

One more unseasonably warm day, and then a taste of autumn air arrives just in time for October to begin. Although there are a few sprinkles around NJ this morning and clouds will be abundant throughout the day, it will be pleasant and warm Tuesday. High temperatures will still come close to 80 degrees. Cooler, drier air will leak in Tuesday night. And then Wednesday will be sunny, breezy, and 10 to 15 degrees cooler — only in the 60s. Thursday also looks cool and crisp also, before a warming trend kicks in for the weekend.

Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda are still churning up the Atlantic, with a high risk of rough rip currents posted for Jersey Shore beaches today. That is expected to continue through the rest of the week. The coastal flooding picture does look better though, with just one or two rounds of minor category flooding from late Wednesday into Thursday.

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Tuesday NJ weather: Cloudy but warm

Tuesday is the 8th full day of autumn. And it is New Jersey's 8th and final day of unseasonable warmth.

We are waking up to temperatures mainly in the 60s, with some 50s in the northwest hills. Theoretically, there are some sprinkles around through mid-morning — but I do not see much activity on radar.

Clouds are going to win the sky throughout Tuesday, but there will be the opportunity for peeks of blue sky and filtered sunshine along the way. We will enjoy light breezes and comfortable humidity levels. (Actually, the air will be drier and more comfy than in recent days.) High temperatures will be on the way side, reaching the upper 70s to around 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Similar to Monday, and still above normal for late September.

While it may seem like a great beach day and a good excuse to jump in the warm 72-degree ocean, please don't. A high risk of rough surf and dangerous rip currents is posted for the Jersey Shore as Hurricane Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda churn up the Atlantic. 2 to 5 foot ocean waves are expected.

Tuesday night, cooler, drier air will start to leak into New Jersey. Wind speeds will kick up a bit more, but it will still be fairly docile and comfortable. Overnight low temperatures will dip to the mid 50s or so.

Wednesday NJ weather: An autumn breeze

October begins Wednesday, and so begins a very different weather day. It will be a full 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Tuesday, and a bit blustery too.

Expect skies to become bright and sunny by midday at the latest. A brisk northerly wind will gust above 20 mph for much of the day, helping to funnel in our new cooler, drier air mass.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be limited to the mid 60s or so. That is more typical of late October than early October. Not awful — just cool. Our coolest day since mid-June, in fact.

One more important note: We continue to closely track Hurricane Humberto (currently 700 miles southeast of New Jersey) and Tropical Storm Imelda (currently 700 miles due south of New Jersey). Humberto in particular has trended weaker and farther away from the Jersey Shore. That means a lower storm surge estimate. That means less flooding potential. So we are only looking at one or two rounds of minor category flooding at the Jersey Shore, from late Wednesday into Thursday. Still a precarious situation, but welcome news for sure.

Thursday NJ weather: Cool and crisp

If the wind dies down enough, Thursday morning could bring widespread 40s to New Jersey. Maybe even some 30s and patchy frost to NW NJ. (Current forecast models don't really bear this out, but it is a possibility I am toying with.)

Thursday will be another cool, crisp "fall feel" kind of day. Expect mostly sunny skies and below-normal temperatures. High temperatures will be limited to the lower to mid 60s.

Friday NJ weather: Warming up again

I saw it every year: Fall is not a gentle weather season here in New Jersey. It is truly a temperature roller coaster, full of hills and dips. Warm periods and cold spells. And so it is totally typical that a two-day cool stretch will be followed by yet another warmup.

Friday looks like a very nice day, with partly sunny skies and more seasonable high temperatures spiking to around 70 degrees.

We could reasonably make a run for 80 again over the first weekend of October. With few clouds and very low rain chances, your outdoor activities will fare just fine. (Although it might feel a bit too warm for football, corn mazes, pumpkin spice, etc.)

NJ's next chance of rain is at least a week away, around the middle of next week. I am really hoping that comes to fruition, or else we are going to have to worry about spiraling drought and fire danger again soon.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.