Mix of rain and limited snow to make for messy travel across NJ Tuesday

What's the bottom line here?

While we get a one-day break of quiet weather on Monday, a powerful storm system is set to impact New Jersey all-day Tuesday. But according to the latest forecast storm track, warm air wins — while some wintry conditions and snow accumulations are possible, the vast majority of the state will just be wet.

UPDATE

On Monday evening, Gov. Phil Murphy declared a state of emergency for five counties starting 5 a.m. Tuesday.

Get our free mobile app

How has this forecast changed?

Very little has changed in my thinking from what I published over the weekend. I have just refined my snow total forecast as we get a clearer picture of who will see more than a couple hours of snowflakes on Tuesday. Confidence continues to grow that this will not be a major storm for New Jersey.

Any problems for Monday?

While the holiday weekend ended with some nasty, wet, showery weather on Sunday, partial sunshine resumes on Monday. It will be a pretty cold day though, with 30s in the morning and only lower 40s in the afternoon. Expect a chilly breeze too. But dry and quiet.

When will the inclement weather begin?

Our storm system will likely begin pushing into New Jersey around 6 a.m. Tuesday. As it does, temperatures will be cold enough across most inland areas to sustain a brief period (a few hours) of snow. This could lead to a surprising reduction in visibility and traction through the morning commute, although accumulations will be limited. By mid to late morning, as temperatures rise above the freezing mark, central, southern, and coastal New Jersey should flip to plain rain.

When will the heaviest precipitation occur?

The brunt of the storm will come around the midday hours, as bands of heavy precipitation develop from late morning through early afternoon. By this time, most of the state will have transitioned to rain. But in far northern New Jersey — especially north of Interstate 80 and west of Interstate 287 — conditions could become increasingly wintry and slick.

When will the rain and snow end in New Jersey?

Precipitation will begin to taper in the late afternoon hours, ending completely early Tuesday evening. Temperatures will drop below freezing across most of New Jersey Tuesday night, raising the possibility of icy spots through Wednesday morning.

How much snow will accumulate?

The initial early morning burst of snow could put a quick coating on the ground practically for any non-coastal area of the state. (That would quickly wash away once the rain picks up, of course.)

The state's first real snow accumulation of the season will be found in the colder higher elevations of northwestern New Jersey this time around. In and around Sussex County, I expect at least some snowfall reports in the 3 to 6 inch range. That qualifies as moderate snowfall.

Branching out a bit, as far south as Hunterdon County and as far east as Bergen County, I could see 1 to 3 inches of snow fall. But rain will take over eventually, getting in the way of that snow sticking around for long.

How much rain will fall?

Although model guidance has backed off on total rainfall, I think a widespread inch of liquid precipitation is still possible on Tuesday.

Given our continuing drought concerns, that would be a good thing. Just watch out for slick, wet roads and big puddles.

How bad will roads be?

As I mentioned, we will have to monitor the Tuesday morning commute carefully, as the initial push of snow and wintry mix could lead to slippery conditions.

In northwestern New Jersey, I expect messy travel throughout the day, as this storm stays mainly wintry there.

For the rest of the state, it will be wet. So still inclement and raw and potentially treacherous if you are not careful.

What advisories have been issued?

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Sussex County only from 4 a.m to 10 p.m. Tuesday. The forecast is right on the borderline of warning criteria — if the next forecast update leans snowy, this watch will upgrade to a warning, otherwise it will likely downgrade to an advisory.

A Winter Weather Advisory covers four additional counties in North Jersey — Hunterdon, Morris, western Passaic, and Warren — where light to moderate snow accumulations could impact travel.

What's in the forecast for later this week?

Sunshine returns on Wednesday. It will be a calm, chilly December day with high temperatures around 40 degrees.

Thursday turns breezy with clouds, with high temperatures in the lower 40s. Once again, that is firmly below normal for this time of year.

Friday gets even colder, with highs only in the 30s. Brrr.

We had been watching another storm in the late-week time frame. Latest model guidance now shows it diving south of New Jersey. Still worth keeping an eye on this one, but it does not pose a huge threat at this point.

Having said that, New Jersey's next weathermaker looks to be another round of rain at the end of the upcoming weekend, around Sunday afternoon.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.