NJ weather: How warm will it get, and how long will it last?
The Bottom Line
It really does not feel like October now. Normal highs at this point of the year are 62 to 64 degrees. But we're talking about temperatures soaring closer and closer to 80 degrees over the next three days. Way above normal for this time of year.
So this forecast is all about warmth for Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Almost summer-ish.
And then, we have to talk about the inevitable transition to cooler weather. Rain chances return to the forecast for Sunday and Monday.
By this time next week, it will be 20 to 30 degrees colder. Yikes.
The weather will look very similar to Wednesday, as temperatures spike a couple degrees higher.
You may or may not need a jacket first thing Thursday morning, as thermometers hover right around 50 degrees to start the day. High temperatures Thursday afternoon will reach the mid to upper 70s. Note: Record highs for this date are 79 at Newark, 78 at Trenton, and 80 at Atlantic City — it will be close.
We'll call skies partly sunny — some points of the day will be brighter than others. And we will stay dry with light winds all day Thursday.
Thursday night really won't be that cold, thanks to a warmer air mass, scattered clouds, and a slight uptick in humidity. Overnight low temperatures will only dip into the mid 50s. Patchy fog is a possibility too.
Still uneventful, and still quite warm. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Morning clouds will give way to more sunshine by the afternoon.
The final weekend of October will start off feeling summer-ish, as Saturday will not only be warm but also pretty humid.
High temperatures Saturday afternoon will come close to 80 degrees, away from northwestern New Jersey and the immediate coast. Dew points will easily push into the 60s — "sticky," but not quite "steamy".
Models are showing lots of sunshine across New Jersey through Saturday morning and early afternoon. Clouds may start to pop up late-day, but I'm leaning toward a dry forecast through Saturday evening.
Sunday & Beyond
Changes are coming Sunday into Monday, as a slow-moving cold front transitions New Jersey back to cooler weather.
Exactly how that transition plays out is still in flux. Sunday looks to go downhill, with a few showers, mostly cloudy skies, and high temperatures generally settling in the 60s. (Maybe a little cooler to the northwest, maybe still in the 70s to the south.) Not a washout, but no longer picture-perfect.
And then Monday would bring another period of rain, before a whoosh of colder air settles in by Halloween on Tuesday. Highs in the lower 50s (at best) would be considerably below normal heading into November.
However, there are multiple models that now paint that cold front stalling or washing-out over South Jersey on Monday. That would not necessarily prolong the arrival of colder air. But it would present the opportunity for additional rain on Tuesday (Halloween) into Wednesday.
While I'm optimistic our weather will be "OK" for trick-or-treaters next week — just blustery — that is not a guarantee. It's one of the most important forecasts of the year. So one we will continue to watch closely.
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Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.
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