NJ warm stretch day 2 of 5: Breeze calms down, sunny and dry
The Bottom Line
With temperatures in the 50s, Tuesday is going to feel like late March. Soaring into the 60s, the rest of the week will more resemble a mid-late April day. With five days in a row of those 50s and 60s (Monday to Friday), this is New Jersey's most prominent warm stretch since early January.
Although Tuesday will be bright and sunny, the rest of the week turns a bit unsettled. A few showers are possible early Wednesday. And then a broader period of scattered rain is likely from Thursday into Friday.
Looming at the end of the week, a big blustery cooldown. By the weekend, it is going to (temporarily) feel like February.
It will be another sunny, dry, mild day. But there are a couple of differences compared to Monday.
First, we start the day with a brisk breeze, occasionally gusting to 20 mph. That wind is dying down, and I expect calmer conditions from midday through the afternoon.
Second, it is going to end up a few degrees cooler. Highs in the lower 50s are still well above normal for mid-February.
Sunshine and blue skies will dominate the day. Clouds will start to thicken up after sunset. And then we could see a shower or sprinkle creep in after Midnight Tuesday night. Overnight low temperatures will dip into the upper 30s.
As a weak wave pushes through New Jersey's atmosphere, I have to keep the chance of spotty rain showers alive through about Noon Wednesday. We are not getting soaked here — it's just a few hours of damp and dreary weather. Rainfall totals will be minimal.
Wednesday skies will progress from cloudy in the morning to partly sunny in the afternoon. It will be breezy. But also warmer, with highs in the lower to mid 60s. We will be close to record high temperatures for the 15th of February.
Still warm, in the 60s. But also turning unsettled.
Our next storm system will roll in sometime Thursday, introducing an extended chance of scattered rain. The start time of raindrops is still a bit up in the air. Some models favor late morning. I'm leaning a little later — staying dry in the morning, then getting wet in the afternoon and evening hours. I still think there could be some localized downpours and rumbles of thunder diving into Thursday night.
A grand day of transition, as a cold front arrives.
Friday will start with rain through the morning hours. Similar to Thursday, it could be pretty wet out there. (Total rainfall may reach an inch.)
By late morning, a cold front will sweep from northwest to southeast across NJ. That is the leading edge of a colder, drier air mass.
You'll know when the front arrives. Rain will end. Skies will start to clear. A gusty wind will kick up, to around 35 mph. And temperatures will tumble, from the lower 60s (early morning) to lower 40s (late afternoon).
The Extended Forecast
Saturday is going to be a typical, seasonably chilly February day — a rarity during this mild, almost snow-free winter. 20s in the morning. Lower 40s in the afternoon. Sunny skies, dry weather, and a light breeze.
And that concludes our next burst of cold air. Thermometers will jump back to 50 degrees or better for Sunday and Monday.
New Jersey's next weathermaker arrives in the middle of next week — Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, depending on which forecast model you prefer. And I will admit this one could get interesting, with a taste of real wintry weather (i.e. snow) possible. We are running out of opportunities for accumulating snow, with the first day of Spring just 34 days away.
Bottom line: Next week bears watching, although we will not have confident details to share until the end of the weekend.
Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.