Nice now, stormy soon: Tracking twists and turns in NJ’s weather

The Bottom Line

Even though there is a cold front on the horizon and some changes to talk about, New Jersey has about three more really nice weather days ahead.

Compared to Monday's beautiful weather, Tuesday will be a bit cloudier and breezier, noticeably more humid, and about 5 degrees warmer. While the daytime hours stay dry, a few showers may creep in at night.

Our next substantial chance of rain could affect your outdoor plans on Friday, with several waves of showers and thunderstorms expected. Some of that wet weather could linger into Saturday too.

Get our free mobile app

Tuesday

Tuesday morning is starting very similarly to Monday morning, cool and crisp. Temperatures are mainly in the 40s, but will warm quickly once the sun rises higher in the sky.

It is definitely going to be a warm day, feeling more like early June than late April. Especially since humidity levels will ramp up in the afternoon, adding to the "sweat factor". High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

Skies will stay bright, with plenty of sunshine early on then high clouds building in. It will turn breezy too, adding to elevated fire danger. (Yeah, this weekend's rain didn't do much to keep that down for long.)

There is a prominent line of rain and storms racing eastward toward New Jersey, ahead of a cold front. As that arrives tonight, it will largely fizzle out. Still, I think a few spot showers could dampen North Jersey. But it really will not amount to much — maybe a few hundredths of an inch in spots.

Because of cloud cover and humidity in the atmosphere, temperatures will remain fairly mild Tuesday night. Most of NJ will only fall off to about 60 degrees.

Wednesday

Technically, Wednesday turns cooler. But only by a few degrees.

Most of New Jersey will still reach the lower 70s on Wednesday. The northern third of the state (approximately) may get stuck in the cooler 60s, due to the (minor) effects of that washed-out front.

With partly sunny skies, a fresh breeze, and dry weather, Wednesday should be another pleasant spring day.

Thursday

Thursday looks good. Partial sunshine, with seasonable high temperatures on either side of 70. (Likely around 65 north and coast, 75 inland and south.) Nothing special.

Friday

If you have outdoor plans on Friday, you should pay close attention to the forecast. A warm front is forecast to lift into New Jersey in the morning, and present the spark for a few waves of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.

Plus, it is going to be warm and humid again, near 80 degrees.

When you combine a storm chance with heat (energy) and humidity (moisture), you do have a recipe for potentially strong thunderstorms with localized downpours. And again, that looks to be a statewide concern, throughout the day. (We will further refine the timing and geography once it gets a little bit closer.)

Saturday & Beyond

Unfortunately, with the arrival of a cold front, it looks like part of Saturday will be wet. Again. (For what, the third time in the last four weeks, I think?)

The big question will be how long those raindrops linger. While previous model runs suggested an end time by about 10 a.m., the latest guidance unfortunately pushes rain chances into part of Saturday afternoon.

No matter how the rain plays out, Saturday will be cloudy and cooler, with highs only around 60 degrees.

Sunday looks like the nicer day of the upcoming weekend, with a return to sunshine and 70.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.