The Bottom Line

As we dive into the final third of October, we face fairly pleasant weather this week. There will be a few inconsequential raindrops. And thermometers will certainly have their ups and downs, with a big warmup followed by a pair of cooldowns.

Monday

Our main weather driver at the moment is a cold front stalled just north of New Jersey. That means two things: 1.) We're on the warm side of the frontal boundary, so temperatures will be on the warm side of normal. 2.) Most (but not all) inclement weather will stay to our north.

Monday will feature periods of clouds and sun (likely leaning closer to the grey side). It will be dry and seasonable, with highs in the mid 60s.

That aforementioned front may spit a shower at NW NJ late Monday (after 4 p.m.) into Monday night. Otherwise, look for mostly cloudy skies and possible fog overnight. Low temperatures will only dip into the mid to upper 50s — considerably milder than the past few nights.

Tuesday

Both dew points and temperatures will bump upward. There will be lots of clouds, but highs should still reach lower 70s. The chance for raindrops isn't zero, but I think it'll be a mainly pleasant day.

Wednesday

Models suggest a batch of very light showers and sprinkles will impact the state from early morning to midday. I'm not convinced those raindrops will reach all the way to the ground, but it's worth mentioning.

Still mostly cloudy, still lower 70s. If all goes according to plan, we'll see late-day clearing.

Thursday

The warmest and nicest day of the week! Partly to mostly sunny skies will push temperatures into the upper 70s. A couple of 80s are not out of the question.

Friday

Cooldown #1 kicks in, in the form of a backdoor cold front. That will drive in an easterly wind, cloud cover, and cooler air (especially along the coastline). Highs will knock back to the mid to upper 60s. Note: That's back to normal — not cold, just cooler.

The Extended Forecast

The current forecast shows a nice, sunny day for Saturday with highs in the lower 70s. But our next strong cold front is progged to arrive Saturday night. Rain looks limited, but a brief burst of wind will open the door to a cooler air mass. The end result — on Sunday, thermometers would struggle to reach the 60-degree mark.

The long-range forecast shows a few more cold fronts during the last week of October, knocking back temperatures even further. By the first of November, we could see regular AM temps in the 30s. Autumn in the air!

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.