Flood Watch: Timeline and totals for on-and-off soaking rain

The Bottom Line

Rain, glorious rain! After a long stretch of hot and mainly dry weather, New Jersey is treated to some much-needed relief on Friday. A storm system to our south is already soaking southern and coastal New Jersey. And over the next ~30 hours, we will see several waves of wet weather sweep south to north across the state.

A Flood Watch is now in effect for most of New Jersey, covering all or part of 17 counties. (Basically away from the coast: Bergen, northwestern Burlington, Camden, Essex, Gloucester, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, inland Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Salem, Somerset, Sussex, Union, and Warren counties.) The watch goes all the way through early Saturday afternoon. Forecast rainfall totals in that area are between 1 and 2 inches. Locally higher amounts are possible if/where it really pours.

Outdoor activities will be challenging on Friday. But Saturday will not be a total washout, as rain wraps up by early afternoon.

While the weekend will start wet, it will end hot. Our next heat wave will probably start on Saturday (definitely by Sunday) — we're looking at 4 or 5 days of sweltering heat this time around.

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Friday

Pretty wet. Let's run through the timeline.

Humid air plus a storm system equals unsettled, rainy, soaking wet weather for the next 30 hours or so. (Accuweather)

Again, as of this writing (6:30 a.m.), rain is already here for southern, coastal, and central New Jersey. By late morning, everyone in the state should have at least a wet ground. This is the first wave of several to affect the state.

It is not necessarily going to rain all day. It will be on and off stuff, heavy at times.

Heavy rain is likely for much of the Atlantic coast Friday into Saturday, including in New Jersey. (NOAA / WPC)

You know what is missing from this soggy forecast? Big, bad, nasty thunderstorms. Yes, juicy air rife with deep tropical moisture will fuel downpours and flooding potential. But instability is limited, keeping the severe weather risk low. (Meaning wind, hail, tornado.) A very good situation.

Friday's severe weather outlook shows very little concern for wind, hail, and/or tornadoes anywhere along the U.S. East Coast. (NOAA / SPC)

Because of the clouds and raindrops, it will not be as hot Friday. Yes, the heat wave is broken! I expect high temperatures to be limited to the lower 80s. Humidity will increase a bit though, as we reenter a steamy air mass.

The steadiest, most widespread rain of this storm system is modeled to arrive in the early evening hours. Scattered rain will continue overnight. It will feel muggy again, as low temperatures only dip into the lower 70s.

Saturday

The first half of the day stays unsettled, with pockets of rain. And as we tap into even juicier air, the threat for downpours will peak Saturday morning.

New Jersey's final raindrops from this storm system look to exit around early Saturday afternoon. Let's say between Noon and 2 p.m. That will allow for rapidly clearing skies and warming temperatures through the afternoon.

So, despite the wet start, Saturday is not a washout. Your late afternoon and evening activities will be OK, although the ground will be soaked.

High temperatures on Saturday are tricky, largely dependent on when the rain exits and when the sun emerges. My forecast calls for 85 to 90 degrees. If we do hit 90+ somewhere in the state — which is not guaranteed — it would be the start of yet another Jersey heat wave.

Sunday

Right back into the heat and humidity again. At least the rain will be gone. And I think we will stay out of the heat "danger zone" on Sunday.

Look for high temperatures in the lower 90s. Hot and humid. Cooler at the coast. Mostly sunny skies. With a slight chance of a popup shower at some point.

Monday

The heat is going to get pretty ferocious again through the first half of next week. But the humidity will stay moderate this time. Dew points may even descend into the 60s, allowing for 1.) the heat index to be much lower, and 2.) those crucial nighttime resets from the heat.

Under partly sunny skies, Monday's high temperatures will reach the lower to mid 90s. We should still benefit from a cooling sea breeze at the beaches.

There is a chance of a shower or thunderstorm Monday afternoon.

The Extended Forecast

Tuesday could be the hottest day of this entire stretch, with 100+ degrees in play somewhere in New Jersey. It will be hot and breezy, with partly sunny skies.

Wednesday will probably be the 5th and final day of the new heat wave — making 13 of 14 days at 90+ degrees. Sometime Wednesday into Thursday, a strong cold front will deliver rain and thunderstorms. That will be followed by a surge of cooler and much drier air.

We have the potential for some drop dead gorgeous weather days at the end of next week, centered on Friday. Seasonable 80s, with low humidity and sunshine? Yes, please! Stay tuned early next week as we pinpoint exactly which days will feature the best weather.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.