Back to the 80s: Warming up, with a rise in humidity on the way
When you think of summertime in New Jersey, you probably think of two words: Heat and Humidity. Our weather is warming up, making this early June day feel more like the middle of summer. But, at least for now, humidity levels will be manageable. Keeping things quite pleasant for yet another day.
We're starting off this Tuesday morning averaging 60 degrees across the Garden State, comfortably cool. High temperatures Tuesday afternoon are forecast to reach the mid 80s across most of New Jersey — that is about 5 degrees warmer than Monday. Mainland beaches may see lower 80s, with 70s on barrier island beaches and along the Delaware Bay coast. Another beautiful day — make sure you're staying hydrated and lathering up on sunscreen.
Dew points during the day Tuesday will stay at or below 60 — a manageable, comfortable humidity level. However, as of Tuesday night, you'll start to feel a hint of stickiness in the air as dew points rise. That will result in warmer overnight temperatures — we'll only bottom out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, quite a bit warmer than the past two days.
Wednesday will feature even more noticeable humidity. With highs again primarily in the mid 80s, the heat index (the "feels like" or "apparent" temperature) will approach 90. (In fact, we'll probably see a few inland thermometers hit 90+ on Tuesday and Wednesday.)
Most of Wednesday looks fine, with sunshine and some clouds. A stiff breeze will occasionally blow out of the south. As we get clipped by a disturbance late Wednesday, there will be a chance for a shower or thunderstorm, mainly to the north and west. Some models paint that storm chance as early as 2 p.m. Wednesday afternoon, but I favor a later (and less impactful) Wednesday evening time frame. Any storm activity here should be very limited in geography. Given the heat and humidity, storms may be on the strong side (gusty winds and downpours), but a widespread severe weather outbreak is unlikely here in New Jersey.
The better chance of rain will come on Thursday, which will be a mostly cloudy and pretty steamy day. That batch of rain will be associated with a cold front. And the start time and end time of that rain will be directly tied to the speed of that frontal passage. So I don't want to put too fine a point on the timeline. Everybody will likely see rain at some point Thursday. And we could see pockets of heavy rain. Flooding is possible, especially with training storm cells (where rain forms and re-forms over the same area repeatedly). Given the clouds and raindrops, Thursday will be a bit cooler, with thermometers holding about 80 degrees.
On Friday, we should flip back to mainly sunny skies and lower humidity. High temperatures will be nice and warm in the 80s again, to close out the workweek.
The forecast for the upcoming weekend looks better, but not perfect. The aforementioned front will stall south of New Jersey, putting us under the influence of a cooler air mass. Models suggest high temperatures will be seasonable, near 80, on Saturday and in the mid-upper 70s on Sunday.
It's not a perfect forecast for the weekend though, with some rain showers in the neighborhood. Again, guidance has backed way off from the wet outlook I discussed on Monday. The most likely solution now shows some coastal clouds and showers on Sunday. That's good news! There's good reason to be optimistic about your weekend plans, and we'll nail down the forecast further as the week rolls along.