40s, 50s, 60s: NJ’s big warmup comes with clouds and rain

The Bottom Line

Two things are going up this week: Temperatures and rain chances.

Our weather becomes more unsettled. That means it is going to be a long time before we get another bright, sunny winter day. It means we are going to get wet. And as the headline of this post suggests, a runaway warmup is possible, as temperatures push into the 40s, 50s, and even 60s through the rest of the week.

Our weather will be dreary and inclement at times. But the only alarm bell we have to ring is a minor one: the threat of light icing due to freezing rain or icy mix in North Jersey only.

After this week's big thaw, our weather will reset next week as cold and possibly snow return to the forecast.

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Tuesday

You will notice an instant difference Tuesday morning, with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. Yes, it's still a cold start to the day. But not nearly as frigid as the single digits and teens of the past few days.

High temperatures Tuesday will reach into the lower 40s or so. Our first trip above-normal and warmest day in over a week.

Skies will be mostly cloudy and somewhat murky throughout the day.

And a band of showers will creep in from mid-morning through mid-afternoon. Mainly a North Jersey thing, light and scattered raindrops.

But if those raindrops hit a cold surface and freeze on contact, we call it freezing rain. And that will be a possibility for Tuesday through early Wednesday, along and north of Interstate 80. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for Sussex, Morris, western Passaic, and western Bergen counties from Tuesday through early Wednesday. It's not for snow — a glaze of ice is possible, due to freezing drizzle. Watch for slippery spots.

With a continuing shower chance Tuesday night, low temperatures will dip into the 30s. Chilly, but not too cold.

Wednesday

Another unsettled day, with clouds and an increasing chance of rain.

Showers should become widespread by about late afternoon Wednesday. High temperatures will continue their climb, reaching the mid to upper 40s.

That is warm enough to quash North Jersey's icing threat by midday Wednesday.

Thursday

Probably the wettest day of the week. One or two periods of light/moderate rain will make for inclement damp weather through much of Thursday. Despite the wet conditions, high temperatures should reach into the 50s for central and southern New Jersey on Thursday.

Total rainfall will be about an inch. Maybe locally higher amounts to the north. Not enough for widespread flooding, although snow/ice melt will be abundant.

Friday

Model guidance depicts one more push of rain early on Friday, exiting by about mid-morning.

As long as we dry out on-time and we catch a peek of sun, temperatures are going to skyrocket. I am forecasting 60s for at least central and southern New Jersey, but statewide is a possibility. (The warmest-case scenario would put South Jersey near 70 degrees — wow!)

For the record, 60s are unusual in late January, but not unheard of. Record high temps right now are actually in the 70s.

Saturday & Beyond

Saturday could be the one dry day of the week. Having said that, cooler air will invade our atmosphere, pushing temperatures down to around 50 degrees. Still, if we catch glimmers of sunshine and skies stay rain-free? Sounds like a good start to the weekend.

Sunday will bring back some precipitation chances, especially early and late. The newest model runs lean toward rain. However, there will be cold air in the neighborhood, so we have to keep snow/mix potential in the back of our minds.

By Monday, highs will be more seasonable, close to 40 degrees. And then another arctic blast in the middle of next week could set the stage for more wintry weather heading into February.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.