The Bottom Line

There are no surprises in this forecast, as very warm temperatures and moderate/high humidity make it feel like summer. Just like Monday, we'll end up below the threshold for "dangerous" heat and air quality concerns. However, we also have to talk about the potential for some soaking thunderstorms too.


Near 70 in the morning, near 90 (away from the coast) in the afternoon, under mostly to partly sunny skies. The daytime hours look mainly dry, although a very isolated soaker may popup after 3 p.m.

A storm system approaching New Jersey Tuesday evening is modeled to partially hold together and drive scattered showers and thunderstorms through the state after about 8 p.m. Pockets of heavy rain and some loud thunder will be possible overnight.


Overnight showers may linger into Wednesday morning, before clearing to a mix of sun and clouds. Still warm and still humid, although I suspect we'll see fewer 90s on the temperature map. Let's call it 85 to 90 degrees.


A dry-down arrives! As humidity drops, it should get a bit more comfortable. Thursday will still be very warm, with highs mainly in the mid 80s. Expect partly sunny skies, with spotty showers and thunderstorms (especially along the Jersey Shore).


I believe Friday will be the nicest day of the week, thanks to manageable humidity, mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and high temperatures about 80 to 85 degrees.


Even though Saturday is now in the 5-day forecast, confidence in what's going to happen this weekend is surprisingly low. As of this moment, the GFS model favors a stalled storm system through early next week — leading to increased cloud cover, "just warm" temperatures, and a wet Sunday. The Euro, however, is drier and much hotter. I'm leaning toward the GFS at this moment, which would allow us to salvage Saturday as a pleasant summer day. Under that scenario, skies will become mostly cloudy with a stiff westerly breeze and highs temperatures about 85 to 90 degrees away from the coast. However, let's keep an open mind as the weekend approaches and this situation continues to evolve.

The Extended Forecast

Again, the exact details of what happens Sunday into early next week is highly dependent on whether the GFS or Euro solution plays out. Of course, I can tell you with reasonable certainty that temperatures will remain at-or-above-normal through the end of June and the 4th of July weekend.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook or Twitter for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.

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