Heavy rain, gusty winds, and more: 7 things to know about NJ’s stormy weather

We continue to watch a storm system tracking over Tennessee now that will really soak New Jersey on Thursday. For Wednesday, expect a "blah" weather day with thickening clouds, a stiff breeze, and persistent spotty showers and drizzle along the coast. High temperatures will be cool, stuck in the mid 50s. Steady rain holds off until early Thursday morning. And then we will see periods of rain throughout Thursday, with windy conditions and possibly some embedded thunderstorms. Rain will wrap up Thursday evening, leaving us with a dry but still windy forecast for Halloween on Friday.

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Wednesday: Clouds and coastal showers

I do think most of New Jersey will stay dry Wednesday, although clouds will be present and persistent all day.

We are starting with temperatures averaging upper 40s Wednesday morning. And highs will only reach the mid 50s Wednesday afternoon, still on the cool side. It is already breezy, especially along the coast.

Spotty showers and patchy drizzle will likely lap up against the coast throughout the day, just like on Tuesday. Just light, nuisance raindrops so far.

It is worth noting that after a day of constant on-shore wind, a round of minor coastal flooding is expected at high tide Wednesday afternoon. A Coastal Flood Advisory goes into effect starting at Noon. (The same will happen again on Thursday — more on that later.)

Wednesday night will stay relatively quiet, with lots of clouds. Temperatures will dip slightly into the lower 50s before potentially rising toward 60 degrees through Thursday morning.

Thursday storm timeline: Soggy PM

Overall, Thursday will not be a nice weather day: Inclement and downright nasty at times, from sunrise to sunset (and beyond).

Initial rain will arrive in the early morning hours, progressing from southwest to northeast across the state. To be clear, even though we had been calling this a "coastal storm," this rain will be steady and eventually heavy statewide — everyone in New Jersey is expected to see stormy weather impacts on Thursday.

Latest forecast models have slid the period of heaviest rain — the "brunt" of the storm — a bit later, into the afternoon and early evening hours. That is unfortunate, as it coincides with many New Jerseyans trying to travel home from work and school, battling low visibility, reduced traction, and big puddles (a.k.a. flooding).

Rain will taper off, also from southwest to northeast, once sunset passes Thursday evening. The state should turn completely dry by Midnight, at the latest.

Biggest storm impact: Rain

We have been crying for weeks (if not months) at this point how parched New Jersey is getting once again, and that we really need some serious rain. So in that regard, I would love to see a good multi-inch soaking. Best estimate would be 1 to 3+ inches for New Jersey, with the highest totals along the NJ Turnpike corridor.

However, there is such a thing as "too much, too quickly" here. Top modeled rainfall totals are coming in over 3 inches now, with most of that falling in a narrow window between Thursday late afternoon and early evening. Such a heavy rainfall rate does raise some flooding alarm bells, especially given as that timing coincides with the PM commute.

There is a good reason for the increase in rainfall expectations, by the way: Hurricane Melissa. The storm has been downright scary to watch, as it developed into one of the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. The devastation in Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba is incredible. While Melissa itself will stay almost a thousand miles away from New Jersey, there is no denying that our atmosphere will connect to its deep tropical moisture. That will enhance our rainfall Thursday, making it heavier and more hazardous. Never ever underestimate the flooding potential of tropical moisture.

Another storm impact: Wind

The wind will be significant and noticeable. Some power outages and downed trees are possible. But ultimately I do not think these will technically qualify as "warning-level" or truly "damaging" winds.

Top gusts will probably reach 30 or 40 mph on Thursday. It will stay windy on Friday too — actually gusts may be even higher behind the storm.

Down the Shore: Coastal flooding

This storm system is completely different from the one that affected New Jersey earlier in October. Especially in terms of the coastal flooding threat.

Winds will blow out of the northeast for a majority of the storm. So it is reasonable to expect 1 to 2 feet of storm surge, causing a couple rounds of minor category flooding. However, that pales in comparison to the moderate/major flooding that occurred over Columbus Day Weekend.

Yes, there will be water inundation issues and road/lane closures along vulnerable spots at the Jersey Shore. But it will amount to "the usual spots" that flood every time there is a sizable storm. And it will only last through the storm on Thursday, and then subside on Friday as the wind direction shifts to a land breeze.

Rumbles of thunder: Severe weather possible

I list this impact last, because it is not the greatest concern but one that is worth mentioning.

Given the moisture content of the air and the energy wrapped up in this storm system, some stronger embedded thunderstorm cells may develop. And those could be capable of producing their own gusty winds. Or maybe even an isolated tornado. (While the official Storm Prediction Center outlook does not put New Jersey in a tornado risk area, I just do not want to rule it out.)

I don't think this possibility changes the way anyone prepares for the storm. We just won't be surprised to hear some rumbles of thunder Thursday afternoon.

Looking ahead: Halloween forecast and beyond

Friday is Halloween, and trick-or-treaters will be happy to hear the forecast looks completely dry. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny by midday.

However, Friday will be a windy day. Gusts to 40 mph will howl out of the northwest, adding a definite blustery characteristic to the day. It will be cool too, with highs only in the mid 50s. So hang on to your hats and pumpkins, and be sure to plan warm layers under your costume.

We dive into November with a quiet, reasonably pleasant, cool weekend. Look for mostly sunny skies, breezy conditions, and high temperatures around 55 to 60 degrees for both Saturday and Sunday.

Don't forget Daylight Saving Time ends early Sunday morning. As clocks "fall back" an hour, we gain an hour of sleep. But sunset also slides before 5 p.m. next week. 'Tis the season.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.