NJ weather: Clearing out and warming up through the weekend

The Bottom Line

Our streak of unsettled weather days is coming to an end. In fact, most of the lower 48 states are enjoying quiet conditions as of Wednesday. (With the exception of some rain over Florida and heat/wind in the desert southwest.)

New Jersey has some gorgeous weather ahead, heading into the first weekend of October. It will be nice to see the sun again, along with comfortable temperatures and land breezes. (As opposed to a constant on-shore breeze, driving rip currents coastal flooding over the last two weeks.)

Having said that, there are three cold fronts in New Jersey's forecast. The first two — Wednesday evening and Saturday morning — will be fairly uneventful. But the third in this sequence, set to arrive Monday morning, will be a bit stronger. Rain showers, a burst of wind, and a cooldown are expected. So while this week's high temperatures are in the 70s, next week looks much more autumnal in the 60s.

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Wednesday

By the numbers, Wednesday's will be similar to Tuesday's. Overall pretty pleasant.

We are starting the day with a blanket of clouds and some patchy fog around. Wednesday morning temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon will reach about 70 degrees. Comfortable and seasonable.

Scattered clouds will linger throughout the day, alongside breaks of blue sky. The daytime hours look dry.

As a weak cold front drives from northwest to southeast across New Jersey Wednesday evening, the sky might spit on you. Just a sprinkle — nothing more than that.

The rest of the overnight will bring clearing skies and cool temperatures, bottoming out in the mid 50s by Thursday morning.

One more noteworthy addition: A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the Jersey Shore until Noon Wednesday. One more day of on-shore breezes will yield one more round of minor tidal flooding at high tide.

Thursday

Thursday's forecast reads like a gorgeous day, from start to finish.

I'm going to call it mostly sunny, although you may notice some extra passing clouds at times. It will be dry and mild, with high temperatures in the lower 70s. That is right on the normal high for early October.

Enjoy!

Friday

Friday looks great too.

Humidity may tick up just enough Friday morning to keep temperatures in the 60s, and spark some patchy fog around the state.

Skies on Friday will progress from sun in the morning to gently increasing clouds through the afternoon.

High temperatures should hit the mid 70s Friday afternoon, with a light southerly breeze.

Saturday

Early Saturday morning — likely before daybreak — a few showers will precede a cold front. Some models go as high as a tenth of an inch of rainfall here. Nothing heavy, but the weekend might start a little damp.

The rest of Saturday looks just fine. Partly sunny skies and upper 70s. Saturday might be the best chance of hitting 80 degrees this week.

Sunday

The cooling, drying effects of that aforementioned cold front will finally arrive on Sunday. That's not a bad thing though — it also looks like a really nice day.

Sunshine and lower 70s — it does not get much better than that in early October, folks.

The Extended Forecast

As I mentioned, New Jersey's next big weather story looks to be a strong cold front arriving Monday morning. (Maybe as early as late Sunday night, FYI.)

Right now, I would say a brief period of steady rain will be followed by a brisk northwesterly wind kicking up. Gusts may top 20 mph throughout the day Monday.

That will be a cooling wind, keeping high temperatures on Monday around 70 degrees.

Right now, overnight lows in NW NJ are forecast to bottom out in the 40s next week. But we will have to watch this carefully — if things trend just a little cooler, in the 30s, there could be "first frost" concerns.

We will enjoy lots of sunshine, dry air, and dry weather next week. And it will start to feel mighty October-ish around here, with high temperatures mainly in the 60s.

5 DAY FORECAST: New Jersey Weather Center