NJ stays mild for now, with a few weather hiccups ahead

The Bottom Line

Monday afternoon was just phenomenal. As the thermometer reached as high as 57 degrees in New Jersey, people were out walking, kids played at the park, and folks were grilling in their backyard. (Myself included!) A delightful taste of springlike weather, after seven weeks of persistent cold.

I am happy to report the mild temperatures will continue. For three more days, in fact. There are a few hiccups to talk about — clouds and two potential shots of rain. But there will still be more opportunities to get outside if you have not done so yet.

However, you know there is a big cooldown coming soon. It is set to arrive this weekend. Just in time for March to roar in like a lion. A chilly, blustery lion.

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Tuesday

It is so nice to not walk outside and freeze Tuesday morning. Temperatures are in the 30s and 40s. Definitely jacket weather. But only a few isolated spots are at or below the freezing mark.

Highs on Tuesday will reach about 55 to 60 degrees. Yes, I am fully confident we will see some 60s Tuesday afternoon, mainly around inland South Jersey.

Meanwhile, you know who definitely will not hit 60 degrees? The Jersey Shore. The ocean and bays along the eastern edge of NJ are still very cold right now — water temperatures are only in the 30s! That marine influence will keep air temperatures considerably colder for coastal communities. The cooling effect of the sea breeze is a double-edged sword — wonderful in the summertime, not so much this time of year.

Tuesday will be cloudier than Monday. But we should still see good peaks of sun around too.

As a weak cold front pushes through, a few spot showers may develop in the late afternoon to early evening time frame. Around 4 p.m. to 6 p.m. Best chance for raindrops will be northern New Jersey. Don't expect much here.

Tuesday night will be comfortably cool, but once again not a freeze for the majority of the state. Look for lows averaging upper 30s by morning.

Wednesday

Another nice day. It will be a few degrees cooler than Tuesday. But I do mean a few.

Highs will still reach the mid 50s — still running about 10 degrees above seasonal normals. We should enjoy abundant sunshine Wednesday morning, before clouds build through the afternoon.

Spotty rain showers are possible starting late Wednesday morning.

Thursday

Thursday will be a "grab the umbrella" kind of day. But it is not an all-day washout. Just a period of wet weather for everyone in New Jersey.

Model guidance is still all over the place in terms of timing of Thursday's rain. I think the morning hours are the most likely for scattered rain to sweep through New Jersey. But that is not a guarantee.

Total rainfall will probably end up around a quarter-inch. Not much, just a few hours of damp and dreary weather.

Meanwhile, temperatures on Thursday will still be on the mild side for one more day. Highs should reach the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

The effects of a cold front will start to be felt Thursday night. As we dry out and skies clear, a gusty wind will kick up. And temperatures will likely slide backward into the 30s by Friday morning.

Friday

Friday will be the last day of the workweek and the final day of February. And it will bring a return to seasonably chilly temperatures.

Friday will be sunny, but blustery. Wind gusts to 30 mph are possible. High temperatures will settle in the mid 40s.

The Bottom Line

This weekend will be dry, but windy with wild temperature swings. That is why we can say March will roar in like a lion, as the saying goes.

This is the start of a "wavier" pattern in New Jersey's atmosphere, that is typical of late winter and early spring. Rather than holding on to persistent cold for days and weeks at a time, we should see spurts of 3 to 4 days of cold followed by 3 to 4 days of relative warmth.

Along those lines, Saturday will be on the warm side. Highs will shoot back into the 50s, although it will be quite windy. Gusts could reach 40 mph.

Sunday, we're back in the refrigerator again. High temperatures will be about 20 degrees colder, only in the mid 30s or so. Again, bright and blustery.

There are signs that temperatures moderate into next week, leading to a midweek chance of much-needed rain. But we will wait and see if that comes to fruition, or if cold air makes a resurgence.

I am still not convinced that snow season is over for New Jersey. But long-range models are sure trending in that direction.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.