New Year, Old Problems?

Well, here we are in the final week of 2011. Does it seem like everyone was telling us last late December that this would be "the turnaround year?"   But it did not happen in 2011. Without a doubt, the economy right now is doing much better than it was a year ago. And the naysayers who were warning about a so-called, "double-dip recession for months and months this year seem to have settled down as we prepare for 2012.

But the fact of the matter is, we are still nowhere close to a full and meaningful economic recovery. But at least the experts are now telling it like it is. Most realistic forecasts say it may be 2014, 2015 or beyond before we can cut joblessness down to 4 or 5 percent. It may be longer than that before housing returns to pre-recession normalacy. Everything we have read lately tells us that this was a very positive holiday retail season and that is certainly a good sign. Consumers make up the biggest component of the economy. When they fail to spend, nothing moves much.

But we need those jobs and we need to sell those houses and to build those houses and accelerate the vast economy that depends on both of those critical economic factors to get this patient out of bed and on its feet.

Will it happen in 2012? Well, the economc patient will feel better than it did this year, but weak hiring and housing will likely persist, barring some miracle.

This may not be a depression. But sadly, we have learned that it has been the "mother of all recessions."