Rain, glorious rain: More wet weather ahead for NJ
Lingering showers and clouds are expected across the Garden State Tuesday, with a prolonged chance of rain coming by the end of the week.
Here are your weather headlines for Tuesday, September 27, 2016...
Lingering Showers and Clouds
As expected, a slow-moving cold front spawned a line of solid rain overnight across New Jersey. In fact, as of 6 a.m. Tuesday morning, some rain continues to fall in the central and southern parts of the state. Rainfall has remained well-behaved, mostly between a tenth of an inch and less than a half-inch. And again, those totals will continue to increase as the sun rises, particularly in South Jersey.
Clouds and showers may linger into the afternoon along the south coast. On the other hand, breaks of sun will be possible this afternoon to the north and west. Temperatures won't go too far: look for 60s in the morning and 70s in the afternoon. North Jersey will be the warmest part of the state Tuesday thanks to peeks of sunshine, in the mid 70s.
By Tuesday evening, drier air will move into New Jersey and we'll enjoy a comfortably cool night with additional clearing. Overnight lows should fall into the mid 50s across most of the state, with scattered 40s expected in the usual cool spots.
Wednesday will start dry as well. Look for a mix of sun and clouds, and an increasing breeze (up to 20 mph). Highs will once again reach the seasonable lower to mid 70s.
Rain, Glorious Rain
By mid-afternoon Wednesday (let's call it 4 p.m.), our next chance of rain comes into play. As a storm system settles and sits over Ohio/Kentucky, we'll see a prolonged period of wet weather - potentially from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday morning. Wow! And we certainly do need the rain - several inches would be great.
Tuesday morning's model suite suggests the heaviest rain will fall through Thursday, with the rainfall bullseye over the western half of the state. While I've seen rainfall estimates as high as 5 inches, the current forecast calls for a more manageable widespread 2 to 3 inches. Again, healthy rainfall. And the ground will just drink it all up, reducing (but not eliminating) any flooding threat. Along with the rain will come overcast, grey skies and potential wind gusts to 35 mph.
While Friday could ultimately be pretty wet too, the rain should become more scattered. As the storm system departs and dry air returns to New Jersey, showers should end by early Saturday morning. However, I wouldn't completely rule out showers lingering a bit later on Saturday, especially given the overall stagnant nature of this setup.
We're currently calling for a dry, warm, pleasant forecast for Saturday afternoon and Sunday, with highs close to 80 degrees.
Watching the Tropics
Social media started buzzing on Monday about Invest 97L, a tropical disturbance currently about 700 miles east of Grenada and 2,400 miles southeast of New Jersey. This disturbance will likely be upgraded to a tropical depression and/or named tropical storm on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next name on the list is Matthew.
Yes, there are forecast models that suggest the storm could head toward the U.S. East Coast in about 8-9 days (around next Wednesday-Thursday). But it is way, way, way too early to say with any uncertainty whether this storm will pose any threat to New Jersey. Relax. Ignore the hype. We'll have better information on the storm's potential track this weekend. Not before.