All eyes on New Jersey for control of Congress (Opinion)
New Jersey has twelve members of the House of Representatives. Seven are Democrats and, currently, five are Republicans, but that could change in November.
Every Member of the House is up for re-election in November 2018. With two Republicans not seeking re-election, Frank LoBiondo in the 2nd District and Rodney Frelingheysen in the 11th District, at least one of those seats will go to the Democrats.
Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew is likely to win in the 2nd District making the count 8-4. If Assemblyman Jay Webber is unsuccessful in the toss-up race in the 11th, then the long held GOP seat will flip as well making the count 9-3. Some are saying that even the 7th District, where Congressman Leonard Lance has some of his base voters upset with his opposition to the Trump tax cuts, could be in jeopardy of going blue. That leaves only two relatively 'safe' seats in NJ for the GOP. The 4th District currently held by my friend and a great member of Congress, Chris Smith.
Chris is in no serious danger of losing in November as his opposition seems to go very far Left alienating average Democratic voters in the Central Jersey District. In the 3rd District, my friend Tom MacArthur is in a tough fight for re-election with the national Democrats raising and spending money trying to unseat him. He joined me Thursday to discuss what's important to his constituents going forward and how he is fighting for them every day.
If you've been listening to me for the past three years on NJ101.5 and watching me on Chasing News for the past five years, you know I'm not a great predictor of political outcomes...(See 2012 blog). That said, here are my predictions for 2018 in NJ....
- Webber pulls out a squeaker
- Lance holds on
- Smith and MacArthur win big and we head into the next Congress with an 8-4 democratic advantage in the NJ delegation.
I reserve the right to update this prediction after Labor Day! Stay tuned for my US Senate thoughts...
Bill Spadea is on the air weekdays from 6 to 10 a.m., talkin’ Jersey, taking your calls at 1-800-283-1015. Tweet him @NJ1015 or @BillSpadea. The opinions expressed here are solely those of Bill Spadea.
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