Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season Predicted for 2013
Experts are predicting a busy hurricane season for the Atlantic basin.
The hurricane season spans from June 1 to November 30.
Although the National Hurricane Center’s predictions for the upcoming hurricane season will not come out till late May, many experts are already predicting a busy hurricane season.
Experts and Researcher’s Predictions
For the entire Atlantic Basin, the average number of named storms is 10.8, the average number of hurricanes is 6.3 and the average number of major hurricanes is 2.7.
Researchers at North Carolina State University use the “Lasso methodology” to forecast the upcoming hurricane season. Researchers state that: “By splitting up climatic models for different regions and different categories of storms, it’s advantageous because it’s easy to interpret.”
North Carolina State University researchers are predicting 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes.
Colorado State University researchers are predicting four major hurricanes and nine hurricanes.
WeatherBell Analytics are predicting five major hurricanes and 12 hurricanes.
Tropical Stork Risk’s are predicting three major hurricanes and eight hurricanes.
Why the Busy Hurricane Season?
Researchers at North Carolina State University state that, “We anticipate an above-average Atlantic basin hurricane season due to the combination of an anomalously warm tropical Atlantic and a relative low likelihood of El Niño”.
El Nino events typically suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic by increasing wind shear. Wind shear generally prevents the formation of a hurricane.
The absence of El Nino can potentially lead to a more active hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean.
Researchers at Colorado State University are in agreement with researchers at North Carolina State University. “The tropical Atlantic has anomalously warmed over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El Niño event this summer and fall are unlikely, thus increasing the chance of a busy season”.
“Major Hit” Drought
The U.S. has avoided landfall by a major hurricane in seven consecutive hurricane seasons and is the longest period on record. A major hurricane is classified by a Category 3 or above on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
A Category 3 hurricane is characterized by winds from 111 to 129 miles per hour.