Unsettled weather for now, 80s return to NJ later this week
A coastal storm system will keep a chance for showers and storms over the Garden State for Monday and Tuesday, before temperatures and humidity soar midweek.
Here are your weather headlines for Monday, May 23, 2016...
Unsettled Start to the Week
As we begin the new workweek, a coastal low sitting just off the Jersey Shore will keep our weather somewhat unsettled. The main forcing from this storm system will stay off-shore, but clouds and rain will persist through Monday and Tuesday.
Monday is starting off with patchy fog, a few widely scattered showers, and temperatures near 50 degrees. For the early to middle part of the day, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the lower to mid 70s by Monday afternoon - not bad, and close to normal for late May. However, the aforementioned low pressure system will disturb our warm atmosphere Monday afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms. The storms will be hit-or-miss and the risk for severe weather is low, but isolated downpours and cloud-to-ground lightning will be possible.
And it's a similar forecast for Tuesday, featuring clouds, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will bump into the mid to upper 70s for Tuesday afternoon.
The warming trend continues for the middle of the week. As the coastal low departs, I am going with an admittedly optimistic forecast for Wednesday: mostly sunny skies, a stiff southwesterly breeze, and dry weather during the day.
Oh, and Wednesday's high temperatures? Lower to mid 80s away from the ocean! I could see a few spots spiking to about 87 degrees Wednesday afternoon! If so, Wednesday would be New Jersey's warmest day since last September.
Thursday will be warm as well. Additionally, as winds become southeasterly, higher levels of moisture will flow into New Jersey's atmosphere. Extra moisture means extra humidity. (Oh, the humidity!) That means not only will Thursday be warm (back in the 80s), but also a bit muggy or sticky. And the humidity could help to spawn some thunderstorms by late-day Thursday.
Big Weekend Approaches...
New Jersey loves Memorial Day, as it marks the unofficial start of the summer season. So it's an important forecast! And one that I don't take lightly!
At this point, so early in the week, I'm leaning toward the Memorial Day Weekend being "OK" weather wise across the Garden State. I'm leaning toward a mostly dry forecast, with high temperatures starting out right around 80 degrees, warming to the lower to mid 80s for Sunday and Monday.
However, there is reason for hesitation. The GFS model shows a slow-moving or stalled front in the neighborhood of New Jersey through at least Friday and Saturday. If that moves over us, accompanied by an on-shore flow, the start of the holiday weekend could turn rainy, cloudy, and cool.
I will, of course, keep you posted on the latest weekend details, as the holiday looms closer!