Stormy, windy, and warm Thursday for New Jersey
A Wind Advisory is in effect for part of the Garden State Thursday, as a line of potentially heavy rain arrives midday.
Yes, there is a nice warmup ahead for Thursday for New Jersey - morning temperatures have hovered in the 40s and 50s, and afternoon high temperatures should reach the lower 60s.
However, there will also be some active weather for Thursday: a line of rain through the middle of the day, and a gusty wind throughout the day.
The National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. Thursday for Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, Monmouth, Ocean, and Salem counties. Wind gusts to 45 mph are expected, especially along and south of the Atlantic City Expressway.
Meanwhile, a line of rain is forecast to push into New Jersey starting around mid-morning (9 a.m.) Rumbles of thunder and pockets of heavy rain will be possible through around the mid-afternoon hours (3 p.m.) There is a slight chance that these storms become strong or severe, with wind gusts to 60 mph possible - but I think torrential rain and lightning will be the primary dangers Thursday. Overall rainfall totals should end up between about a half-inch and an inch.
Showers may linger through as late as Midnight Thursday night. Generally, the overnight hours will feature clearing skies and a continuing stiff breeze. That breeze could make the night feel a bit brisk. As temperatures fall to around 40 degrees by Friday morning, wind chills will be in the 20s or 30s (depending on the exact temperature and wind speed).
Friday doesn't look too bad for New Jersey. Temperatures will come down a bit, compared to Thursday, with highs in the mid 50s. (That's just shy of normal for early April.) Skies will be partly sunny, we'll continue a stiff breeze (to 20 mph), and there is a chance for an isolated shower.
The coldest is yet to come though, as this weekend will bring a return of some really chilly air! Saturday's high temperatures will be limited to the mid to upper 40s - that's 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, this weekend's morning low temperatures will fall well below freezing. Three more hard freezes (Saturday, Sunday, and Monday) are three more pieces of bad news for early season gardeners and farmers across the state.
Additionally, a storm system is forecast to sweep across New Jersey on Saturday, bringing a chance of rain and even some snow. This morning's models presented the nasty surprise of some accumulating snow on Saturday. The GFS model puts a totally bogus bullseye of 9" of snow in North Jersey by Saturday night. The NAM, Euro, and Canadian models agreed, however, that some snow accumulation will be possible on Saturday, especially in the higher elevations of NW NJ. At this point, I would characterize the snow potential as "an inch or two" at best, given the warm ground and the above freezing temperatures during the day on Saturday. Depending on the timing, track, and intensity of this storm system, we may have to revise this estimate as the weekend gets closer.
Sunday will be the "bottom of the barrel" in terms of temperatures, with morning lows in the 20s and afternoon highs only in the lower 40s. At least the day will be sunny and dry, with the cold high pressure system overhead.
It looks like temperatures will moderate a bit through the middle of next week, through the 50s and 60s. But more April showers (and thunderstorms) are expected around the Tuesday timeframe.