Rain today, snow tonight, then a nice warmup
A fast-moving clipper system will bring light rain and snow to New Jersey starting this afternoon, and some of that snow could accumulate in far North Jersey tonight.
The last day of March has arrived and, of course, Mother Nature still hasn’t quite realized it’s not Winter anymore. Yes, there’s some snow in the forecast for tonight. And yes, it could very well accumulate a bit in far North Jersey.
So far Tuesday morning, we’ve seen mostly clear skies and cool temperatures mostly in the 30s. Clouds will increase through the morning and early afternoon. Eventually, light rain will spread across the state this afternoon and this evening. That could make for a wet ride home from work or school today, but overall it shouldn’t be too bad. High temperatures today should reach the 45° to 55° range.
As temperatures drop after sunset tonight, chances are pretty good that the continuing rain showers will either mix with or change to snow. The time window for snowfall will be narrow (about 8 p.m. to 2 a.m.). Regardless, if the snowfall can overcome the warm, wet ground, we’ll see some light accumulations. Best chance for accumulation will be north of Interstate 80, with up to an inch of new snow possible. Localized pockets of snow over an inch will be possible... but that will be highly dependent on how quickly the rain changes to snow, how quickly the ground cools to accommodate snow accumulation, and how hard it snows during that narrow time window.
The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for Sussex and northern Passiac counties tonight. Their snow forecast is a bit higher than ours - especially for Sussex County. But I think 4 inches is way too high, given the mostly light intensity of the snow and the fact that the precipitation will start as rain through the daytime hours.
Showers will end statewide soon after midnight, and skies will clear quickly as the storm system departs. By daybreak, we should be mostly clear (or close to it). As a cool high pressure system takes control of our weather, we’ll see lots of sunshine, light winds, and comfortably cool temperatures for Wednesday. High temperatures should be just below normal, in the upper 40s to about 50°.
On Thursday, as that cool air mass shifts eastward, we pick up a brisk southwest wind. That will be a warming wind, helping temperatures on Thursday to reach about 60° statewide. Both Wednesday and Thursday should be very nice spring days, despite the coolness on Wednesday and the breeze on Thursday.
Friday gets even warmer, bumping well into the 60s across New Jersey. But our next weather system also arrives on Friday, bringing mostly cloudy skies and rain.
There still seems to be a lot of uncertainty surrounding the forecast this weekend. But at the moment, your Easter weekend looks cool and a bit unsettled with continuing chances for rain.