NJ weather this week: Wicked wind, then welcome warmup

The Bottom Line

I always say March is a volatile, tumultuous weather month. We saw that this weekend, with pouring rain, snow squalls, graupel, and gusty winds. Even though we are looking at a mainly dry week, we still have one piece of "meteorological violence" to talk about: Wind.

A strong pressure gradient, between this weekend's departing storm system and approaching high pressure, will keep wind speeds elevated all day Monday. Expect occasional gusts to 40+ mph. (Top gust last Sunday was 66 mph.)

Once the darn wind calms down, temperatures will skyrocket. We will have a stretch of springlike 60s and even 70s for three or four days, starting Tuesday. (Although keep in mind, it is "cooler at the Shore" season.)

Month-to-date rainfall totals are triple the normal for the first third of March, so it's good we get a break of dry weather. It looks like widespread rain showers will come back into play on Friday, potentially continuing into part of the St. Patrick's Day weekend too.

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Monday

It's windy. And it will stay windy through Monday morning and afternoon, with occasional gusts to 40 mph blowing from the west.

Monday will look like a nice day, as skies become mostly sunny and we stay dry. (I do not think snow showers and squalls will be an issue this time around.) High temperatures will be seasonably cool, close to 50 degrees.

The wind will calm down in two phases, the first of which will coincide with sunset Monday evening. We will transition from "windy" (40+ mph gusts) to "just breezy" (20+ mph gusts). Of course, combined with cold temperatures in the upper 30s overnight, the wind chill is going to bite you in the 20s.

Tuesday

Tuesday morning will still carry a stiff westerly breeze. But I do expect wind speeds to diminish as the day progresses.

As soon as that wind dies down, a warmup kicks in. High temperatures on Tuesday will shoot into the lower 60s, more than 10 degrees above normal for mid-March. Once again, we will enjoy sunny skies and dry weather.

Wednesday

Wednesday looks gorgeous and springlike. You'll spot a few clouds in the sky during the day. With high temperatures on the warm side, shooting for 65 to 70 degrees. Yes, 70!

Not everyone in New Jersey will be warm on Wednesday, however. The Atlantic Ocean water temperature is still in the 40s along most of the Jersey Shore. And that has a huge impact on air temperatures in coastal communities here in the spring.

East of the Parkway, you will not hit 70 degrees this week. More like mid 50s, especially on barrier islands. Still nice, but not exactly "warm" yet.

Thursday

Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, only with more cloud cover. Highs push to near 70 degrees again, away from the coast. And our weather should stay dry for one more day.

Friday & Beyond

Our weather turns a bit unsettled late-week, as a series of storm systems will bring about a couple of rain chances.

Having said that, there is a good chance we squeeze out one more day of unseasonably warmth on Friday. 70-ish is a possibility again for inland South Jersey. North Jersey may be affected by some cooler air.

Forecast models are showing two batches of rain coming up this weekend too. But the exact timing is in question. While the Euro model favors Friday daytime showers, the GFS model holds raindrops until Friday night. Shower chances come back into play around midday Sunday, which is St. Patrick's Day. Once again, it's all wet, with nothing wintry in sight.

I will say that, at the moment, Saturday is trending sunny and dry with highs in the 50s. A reasonably pleasant mid-March forecast, if it holds.

The second half of March trends cooler again, although not particularly active. We are only 8 days away from the official start of Spring, coming up next Tuesday, March 19th.

Dan Zarrow is Chief Meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook for the latest forecast and realtime weather updates.