Nice weather Tuesday for NJ – Flood Watch for Wednesday
High temperatures on Groundhog Day will end up about 10 degrees above normal for the Garden State, but heavy rain is expected within 24 hours.
Tuesday - Nice!
Happy Weather Rodent Day! Despite what Mr. Groundhog has to say about the weather forecast, it's going to feel like spring for a few more days here in New Jersey... But I assure you that winter will return eventually.
Monday truly felt like a spring day, with some highs in South Jersey in the 60s for the second day in a row. Of course, the afternoon and evening rain put a bit of a damper on the weather.
Tuesday will end up cooler, with statewide highs around 50. But that's still about 10 degrees above normal for early February! The day will also feature abundant sunshine through at least the middle of the afternoon. Yes, it looks to be a beautiful day. And yes, we should see some more solid snow melt today.
Clouds will increase this evening through the overnight, as our next storm system approaches. Clouds and increased dew points should keep low temperatures above freezing, around 40 for most of the state.
Wednesday - Rain and Flooding
Mother Nature will tell a very different weather story for Wednesday, as our weather turns wet, windy, and warm.
A warm front Wednesday morning will bring some showers and (more noticeably) cause temperatures to spike into the lower to mid 60s. A cold front later Wednesday will keep the rain machine going, and potentially spawn some pockets of moderate to heavy rain. That's the big concern for tomorrow: the combination of heavy rain and heavy snow melt may cause flooding of streets, streams, and low-lying areas.
The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for parts of central and southern New Jersey from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon, due to the risk for minor to moderate flooding. The Flood Watch generally parallels the Passaic, Raritan, and lower Delaware River basins.
Remember the mantra: Turn Around, Don't Drown. You should never attempt to drive, walk, or swim through flooded areas. It's incredibly dangerous... and incredibly digusting.
Beyond the Rain
Thursday's forecast presents a problem, as the NAM and Euro models keep rain showers over part of New Jersey for most of the day. Meanwhile, the GFS pushes all rain off-shore by 1 a.m. Thursday morning. I'm leaning toward a wetter, cloudier forecast for at least the first half of Thursday. But again, with mild temperatures, it's all rain - no wintry weather to worry about from this system.
Skies will clear for Friday and the weekend, as more seasonable temperatures take over. Highs on Friday will be in the lower 40s, with mid 40s for Saturday and Sunday.
The next storm system of consequence is modeled for Monday afternoon. However, run-to-run consistency has been highly volatile regarding the track and timing of this storm. So for now, I'll leave it to the armchair meteorologists to hype this storm on social media. Once we have a molecule of confidence in this forecast, you'll be the first to know.